The Millennial Agora continues our complete preview of the upcoming midterm elections for Congress with the state of Florida. A state of more than 21 million people, Florida is the third most populated state in the country and its population has increased consistently year over year. Politically, the state has taken a relatively sharp turn to the right, at least by Florida standards. During the 1990’s and 2000’s, Florida was the ultimate battleground state, often choosing its nominee for President by less than 1% and was a bitterly contested state for both parties. Traditionally, the state was split among what some called the I-4 Line. Interstate 4 is a major highway which crosses Florida from east to west in the middle of the state and passes by major cities such as Orlando and Tampa. Traditionally, the areas to the north of this highway were strongly conservative, while the areas to its south, which includes the sprawling metropolitan area of Miami, were traditionally Democratic. Over the past election cycles however, Democratic support has dried up in the suburbs and, most notably, among Hispanic voters, especially among Cuban-Americans in the Miami area. This has led to Democratic areas being largely limited to inner-city areas, while Republicans have made positive inroads with nearly all voting blocs in the state, which voted for former President Trump in both elections he contested. While Republicans may struggle in some of the other battleground states we have previewed before (such as Arizona), they are looking to make critical gains in the redrawn districts of Florida. In 2022, there will be elections in Florida for the House of Representatives, Senate, and Governor. Currently, the state’s delegation in the House is split 16-11 in favor of the Republicans. Due to population growth, Florida was awarded one extra seat in the House, bringing its new total of seats to 28.
House of Representatives
Florida receives 28 seats in the House of Representatives and all seats will be up for election in November. The overall CVPI for the entire state is R+3, making Florida’s House races (taken as a whole) to be categorized as toss-ups, but the state does lean slightly to the right. (The CPVI, or Cook Partisan Voting Index, is the main metric to measure the strength of a political party for a particular House district or Senate seat. The measure was created and managed by the non-partisan Cook Political Report and uses historical data, as well as polling, to create the “partisan lean” of each district or state. A CPVI rating of R+15 would mean that on average, Republican candidates win elections in that district or state by an average of 15%, while a rating of D+15 would mean the same thing, but for the Democratic candidate. A district or state with a CPVI with double digits is considered to be non-competitive).
I. FL-01:
A. Current Representative: Matt Gaetz (R)
B. Population Distribution: Mostly Urban, Many Rural Areas
C. Demographics: 69% White, 15% African American, 8% Hispanic, 5% Asian
D. Cook PVI: R+19 (Strong Republican)
E. Outlook: Florida’s first district includes the far western past of the Florida Panhandle, including the cities of Pensacola and Fort Walton Beach, both popular vacation destinations, and borders Alabama. The district is overwhelmingly conservative and has been one of the state’s strongest areas of support for the Republican Party for decades. The race has received national attention however due to controversies of various levels for both candidates. Democratic nominee Rebekah Jones was in a long and protracted legal battle with the state of Florida and was at one point disqualified from this race. She was one of the main architects of the software behind tracking COVID-19 infections in Florida and was one of only a handful of Democrats who held government positions in Florida. She was fired from her job in May of 2020 and sued the state, alleging that her firing was due to her political beliefs. In May of 2022, the Florida Inspector General found her claims to be unsubstantiated. During the period before the findings were released, she was disqualified by running, but this was appealed by the Florida Supreme Court. Meanwhile, incumbent Rep. Matt Gaetz is currently under two federal investigations for allegedly entering into a sexual relationship with a 17 year-old girl in exchange for money and is being investigated for sex trafficking of multiple girls, including minors, who he may have had improper relationships with across state lines, a federal crime. Despite the federal investigations, Rep. Gaetz won the Republican primary by more than 40%. Republican candidates received more than three times more votes than Democratic candidates in the district’s closed primary.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
II. FL-02:
A. Current Representative: Neal Dunn (R)
B. Population Distribution: Largely Rural, Many Smaller Urban Areas
C. Demographics: 63% White, 25% African American, 7% Hispanic
D. Cook PVI: R+8 (Leans Republican)
E. Outlook: The Florida 2nd District includes the central part of the Panhandle, including the vacation city of Panama City as well as the state capitol, Tallahassee, and borders both Alabama and Georgia. The district became slightly more competitive through redistricting, since Tallahassee, which leans slightly to the left, is now unified within the district. However, there are still many advantages for incumbent Rep. Dunn, who has represented this district since 2016. The district still leans heavily for Republicans, the areas outside of Tallahassee are very red, and polling has shown Rep. Dunn with a consistent lead, even if it has dwindled somewhat from an advantage of 21 points in June to an advantage of 14 points by the end of September. Still, in a red state and largely red area, this lead is more than comfortable for an incumbent Republican.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
III. FL-03:
A. Current Representative: Kat Cammack (R)
B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Some Urban
C. Demographics: 65% White, 18% African American, 12% Hispanic
D. Cook PVI: R+9 (Strong Republican)
E. Outlook: The Florida 3rd District includes the northern central part of state, with the university town of Gainesville as its largest population center. The district also borders Georgia. Incumbent Rep. Cammack has been representing the district since 2020 and won her primary by more than 70 points. Although Republican candidates “only” received about 20,000 more votes than Democratic candidates in the closed primaries, most of this was due to the fact that the Republican primary being largely non-competitive. Rep. Cammack’s polling lead has remained constant at around 25%, and the national momentum felt by Democrats in other parts of the country has largely been absent in this district.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
IV. FL-04:
A. Current Representative: None (Heavily Redrawn District)
B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Some Suburban
C. Demographics: 52% White, 34% African American, 9% Hispanic
D. Cook PVI: R+6 (Leans Republican)
E. Outlook: The Florida 4th District is one of the two heavily redrawn districts around the Jacksonville area, with this one encompassing many of the western suburbs of the state’s largest city and fourth-largest metropolitan area, as well as rural areas and small seaside communities on the border with Georgia. The favorite in this race is Republican nominee Aaron Bean, the President pro Tempore of the Florida Senate. His challenger in the race is LaShonda Holloway, a former Congressional aide, who won her primary by only 0.4%. The redrawn maps of congressional districts, which were drawn almost solely by Rep. Governor Ron DeSantis and his team, split up the Jacksonville area into two districts which both favor Republicans. If this district has been drawn up at the 2020 Presidential Election, former President Trump would have won it by 7 points. Polling aggregate data has shown Mr. Bean with a lead of around 17 points. Since this seat is open, a Republican victory in this district would be a critical gain for the party.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (GAIN)
V. FL-05:
A. Current Representative: John Rutherford (R)
B. Population Distribution: Largely Urban and Suburban
C. Demographics: 65% White, 14% African American, 12% Hispanic, 8% Asian
D. Cook PVI: R+11 (Strong Republican)
E. Outlook: The Florida 5th District includes the eastern half of Jacksonville and extends to the Atlantic Coast. Incumbent Rep. Rutherford is running unopposed in this race.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
VI. FL-06:
A. Current Representative: Michael Waltz (R)
B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Some Urban
C. Demographics: 71% White, 13% African American, 12% Hispanic
D. Cook PVI: R+14 (Strong Republican)
E. Outlook: The Florida 6th District includes the northern Atlantic coast city of Daytona Beach as well as many rural inland areas in northern Florida. Incumbent Rep. Waltz is only running against a Libertarian candidate in this race as the Democratic nominee did not qualify for the general election.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
VII. FL-07:
A. Current Representative: Stephanie Murphy (D)
B. Population Distribution: Largely Suburban and Exurban
C. Demographics: 62% White, 21% Hispanic, 12% African American, 5% Asian
D. Cook PVI: R+5 (Leans Republican)
E. Outlook: The Florida 7th District may be among the easiest flips for the Republican Party in 2022, featuring many of the suburbs to the northeast of Orlando, stretching to the Atlantic Coast. The new district drawn by Gov. Ron DeSantis was vastly redrawn and the current Representative, Stephanie Murphy, is retiring at the end of her current term. The favorite in the race is Republican nominee Cory Mills, a US Army veteran, who has received endorsements from many Republican members of Congress. His opponent in the race is Vice Chair of the Florida Democratic Party, Karen Green. Former President Trump would have won this district by 5 points, Republican candidates received more than 20,000 more votes than Democratic candidates in the closed primaries, and polling aggregate data has shown a consistent lead of around 15% for Mr. Mills. A second gain for a Republican party which only needs six seats to flip the House shows just how important Florida is to their national strategy.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (GAIN)
VIII. FL-08:
A. Current Representative: Bill Posey (R)
B. Population Distribution: Largely Urban and Suburban
C. Demographics: 72% White, 12% Hispanic, 11% African American
D. Cook PVI: R+11 (Strong Republican)
E. Outlook: The Florida 8th District consists of the so-called Space Coast, with the cities of Melbourne, Vero Beach and Cape Canaveral, home of the Kennedy Space Center. Incumbent Rep. Posey has represented the district since 2008 and ran unopposed in his primary. Polling data has shown him with a consistent advantage of around 30 points in this deep red district.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
IX. FL-09:
A. Current Representative: Darren Soto (D)
B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Suburban
C. Demographics: 52% Hispanic, 30% White, 14% African American, 5% Asian
D. Cook PVI: D+8 (Leans Democratic)
E. Outlook: The Florida 9th District includes the southern suburbs of Orlando, including Kissimmee. Incumbent Rep. Soto has represented this minority-majority district since 2016. He ran unopposed in the primaries. Orlando is amongst the most liberal cities in Florida and a Democratic incumbent with a lead in the polling averages of 19% (which has grown since June from 15%) is a bit of good news for a Democratic Party desperately looking to limit their losses in the Sunshine State.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)
X. FL-10:
A. Current Representative: Val Demings (D)
B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Urban
C. Demographics: 36% White, 30% Hispanic, 28% African American, 6% Asian
D. Cook PVI: D+14 (Strong Democratic)
E. Outlook: The Florida 10th District includes all of downtown Orlando as well as a majority of both Walt Disney World and Universal Studios amusement parks, two of the biggest tourist attractions in the state. Incumbent Rep. Val Demings, who has represented the district since 2016, is leaving her seat to run for Senate in the state. The favorite in the district is Democratic nominee Maxwell Frost, one of the youngest nominees in the country at only 25 years old. Mr. Frost was a former National Organizing Director of March for Our Lives, a nationwide advocacy group advocating for stricter gun control legislation. He has received endorsements from many Democratic political figures, as well as the Orlando Sentinel newspaper. Mr. Frost’s polling average has slowly increased from June to a margin of around 26% in the deep blue district.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)
XI. FL-11:
A. Current Representative: Daniel Webster (R)
B. Population Distribution: Largely Suburban, Some Rural
C. Demographics: 59% White, 19% Hispanic, 14% African American, 5% Asian
D. Cook PVI: R+8 (Leans Republican)
E. Outlook: The Florida 11th District includes many of the communities in western central Florida, including the sprawling community of The Villages, the largest retirement community in the country. Incumbent Rep. Webster has represented the district since 2010 and won his primary by around 7% over alt-right media personality Laura Loomer. The Villages was an area of enormous support for former President Trump and has become a famously Republican community within Florida. Rep. Webster has enjoyed a polling lead of around 27% since June.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
XII. FL-12:
A. Current Representative: Gus Bilirakis (R)
B. Population Distribution: Mostly Urban, Some Rural
C. Demographics: 75% White, 14% Hispanic, 6% African American
D. Cook PVI: R+17 (Strong Republican)
E. Outlook: The Florida 12th District includes many areas on the western central coast of Florida. It is among the most Republican districts in the state. Rep. Billirakis has represented the district since 2006.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
XIII. FL-13:
A. Current Representative: Charlie Crist (D)
B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Urban and Suburban
C. Demographics: 74% White, 11% Hispanic, 9% African American, 5% Asian
D. Cook PVI: R+6 (Leans Republican)
E. Outlook: The Florida 13th District includes the cities in the western part of the Tampa metropolitan area including Clearwater and parts of Saint Petersburg. Similar to the Florida 7th District, this district should also be an easy flip for the Republican Party. Incumbent Charlie Crist is running for Governor this year and is thusly retiring from his seat. The favorite in the race is Republican nominee Anna Paulina Luna, the director of Hispanic Engagement for Turning Point USA, one of the largest conservative action groups in the country. Her opponent in the race is Eric Lynn, a former senior advisor to the United States Secretary of Defense. There are many positives for Republicans in this redrawn district which became much more favorable to them. In the old district, President Joe Biden won that district by 4 points, while in this new district, former President Trump would have won it by 6 points, a swing of 10 points for the Republicans. Although the polling averages have become slightly closer since June, Ms. Luna still has a 13% lead in the polls and has received endorsements from former President Trump as well as many Republicans in Congress. In a red state and minority white district which has been redrawn to favor Republicans, this third gain for the Republicans will inch them closer to retaking the House.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (GAIN)
XIV. FL-14:
A. Current Representative: Kathy Castor (D)
B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Urban
C. Demographics: 46% White, 27% Hispanic, 21% African American, 5% Asian
D. Cook PVI: D+8 (Leans Democratic)
E. Outlook: The Florida 14th District includes the eastern part of the Tampa metropolitan area, including most of Saint Petersburg and all of Tampa. Incumbent Representative Kathy Castor has represented the district since 2006. Democratic candidates received nearly twice as many votes as Republican candidates in this relatively blue district. Rep. Castor has pushed her lead in polling aggregate data to around 20%.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)
XV. FL-15:
A. Current Representative: None (New Seat)
B. Population Distribution: Largely Rural, Some Suburban
C. Demographics: 51% White, 25% Hispanic, 17% African American, 6% Asian
D. Cook PVI: R+4 (Leans Republican)
E. Outlook: The Florida 15th is a new seat which was created due to population growth in Florida over the past decade. It includes the area of suburbs northeast of Tampa and the rural areas between Tampa and Orlando. The favorite in this race is Republican nominee Laurel Lee, former Florida Secretary of State, and judge. Her opponent is Alan Cohn, a Peabody Award-winning journalist who ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 2014 and 2020. The district is not drawn to be hugely advantageous for Republicans but should be enough to win in a red state which is trending more to the right. Former President Trump would have won the district by only 3% and Republicans only received about 9,000 more votes than Democrats in the district’s closed primaries. Still, no poll has shown Mr. Cohn in the lead (including one commissioned by his own campaign) and Ms. Lee is up by around 10% in the polling averages, a drop from around 17% in June. Although the race will be relatively close, there is still enough support from rural and exurban conservatives for the Republicans to gain yet another seat.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (GAIN)
XVI. FL-16:
A. Current Representative: Vern Buchanan (R)
B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Some Urban and Suburban
C. Demographics: 60% White, 22% Hispanic, 14% African American
D. Cook PVI: R+7 (Leans Republican)
E. Outlook: The Florida 16th District includes the southern suburbs of Tampa and the coastal city of Bradenton. The district became more favorable for Republicans through redistricting. Incumbent Rep. Buchanan has represented the district since 2006. Former President Trump would have won this new district by 9 points. Rep. Buchanan has enjoyed a significant polling advantage of around 23%.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
XVII. FL-17:
A. Current Representative: Greg Steube (R)
B. Population Distribution: Largely Suburban, Many Rural Areas
C. Demographics: 76% White, 14% Hispanic, 7% African American
D. Cook PVI: R+10 (Strong Republican)
E. Outlook: The Florida 17th District includes the coastal cities of Sarasota, one of the fastest-growing cities in the country, as well as Venice. Current Representative Steube has represented the district since 2018 and is up by around 28% in the polling aggregate data in this deeply red district.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
XVIII. FL-18:
A. Current Representative: Scott Franklin (R)
B. Population Distribution: Largely Rural, Many Suburban Areas
C. Demographics: 55% White, 27% Hispanic, 15% African American
D. Cook PVI: R+13 (Strong Republican)
E. Outlook: The Florida 18th District includes almost all of south-central Florida, including the city of Winter Haven. Incumbent Rep. Franklin has represented the district since 2020. He is running unopposed in the election.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
XIX. FL-19:
A. Current Representative: Byron Donalds (R)
B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Urban and Suburban
C. Demographics: 70% White, 19% Hispanic, 7% African American
D. Cook PVI: R+13 (Strong Republican)
E. Outlook: The Florida 19th District includes nearly all of the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metropolitan area on the southwestern coast of Florida. Incumbent Rep. Donalds has represented the district since 2020. He has a lead in the aggregate polling data of around 23% in this very red urban district.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
XX. FL-20:
A. Current Representative: Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D)
B. Population Distribution: Largely Suburban, with many Rural Areas
C. Demographics: 53% African American, 24% Hispanic, 21% White
D. Cook PVI: D+25 (Strong Democratic)
E. Outlook: The Florida 20th District is a large district which includes the most of Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, two of the most Democratic areas in the massive Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach urban area in South Florida. The district was drawn to include many of the most Democratic areas in the area as to make the other South Florida districts much more competitive for Republicans. Incumbent Rep. Cherfilus-McCormick is seeking her first full term in Congress after she won a special election in January to replace Democrat Alcee Hastings who died in 2021. She has enjoyed a polling lead of around 50% in the aggregate data.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)
XXI. FL-21:
A. Current Representative: Brian Mast (R)
B. Population Distribution: Urban
C. Demographics: 64% White, 18% Hispanic, 145 African American
D. Cook PVI: R+7 (Leans Republican)
E. Outlook: The Florida 21st District includes the area known as the Treasure Coast in the northern part of the large urban area of South Florida; this includes the city of Port Saint Lucie. Incumbent Rep. Mast has represented the district since 2016. The most Republican district in South Florida, Rep. Mast has kept a polling lead of around 20% in the aggregate data and will be one of the pivotal areas of red in the South Florida area on Election Night.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
XXII. FL-22:
A. Current Representative: Lois Frankel (D)
B. Population Distribution: Urban
C. Demographics: 51% White, 27% Hispanic, 18% African American
D. Cook PVI: D+7 (Leans Democratic)
E. Outlook: The Florida 22nd District includes parts of West Palm Beach as well as the coastal town of Delray Beach. Former President Trump’s private residence at Mar-a-Lago is also included in the district. Incumbent Rep. Frankel has represented the district since 2012. She has increased her lead in the polling aggregate data to around 20% in this largely Democratic part of South Florida.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)
XXIII. FL-23:
A. Current Representative: Ted Deutch (D)
B. Population Distribution: Urban
C. Demographics: 55% White, 22% Hispanic, 15% African American, 5% Asian
D. Cook PVI: D+5 (Leans Democratic)
E. Outlook: The Florida 23rd District includes the coastal city of Boca Raton as well as parts of Fort Lauderdale. Incumbent Rep. Deutch is not running for reelection in the seat (he is becoming CEO of the American Jewish Committee) and so the seat is open. The favorite for the seat is Democratic nominee Jared Moskowitz, the current County Commissioner of Broward County. He has received numerous endorsements from national Democratic figures, including former First Lady Hillary Clinton. President Joe Biden would have won this new district by around 14 points in 2020 and Democratic candidates received almost twice as many votes as Republican candidates in the district’s closed primaries. With an average polling lead of 12% (which has increased from 8% since June), it would take a serious red wave nationally and, in the state, to turn this traditionally Democratic seat red.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)
XXIV. FL-24:
A. Current Representative: Frederica Wilson (D)
B. Population Distribution: Urban
C. Demographics: 44% African American, 38% Hispanic, 18% White
D. Cook PVI: D+25 (Strong Democratic)
E. Outlook: One of the most Democratic districts in the state, the Florida 24th includes the northern areas of metro Miami, as well as Miami Beach. Incumbent Rep. Wilson has represented the district since 2010 and is known in Congress for her vast collection of different hats. Democratic candidates received around seven times more votes than Republicans in the closed primaries.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)
XXV. FL-25:
A. Current Representative: Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D)
B. Population Distribution: Urban and Suburban
C. Demographics: 43% Hispanic, 33% White, 19% African American, 6% Asian
D. Cook PVI: D+9 (Strong Democratic)
E. Outlook: The Florida 25th District includes southern parts of Fort Lauderdale as well as the city of Hollywood and some inland areas. Rep. Wasserman-Schultz has represented the district since 2004. She alone received twice as many votes as all Republican candidates in the closed primaries and has a 20% lead in the aggregate polling data.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)
XXVI. FL-26:
A. Current Representative: Mario Díaz-Balart (R)
B. Population Distribution: Urban and Suburban with many Rural Areas
C. Demographics: 73% Hispanic, 19% White, 7% African American
D. Cook PVI: R+8 (Leans Republican)
E. Outlook: The Florida 26th District includes some areas of downtown Miami, some western suburbs as well as a vast inland area that stretches all the way to the suburbs of Naples on the Gulf coast. Rep. Díaz-Balart has represented the district since 2002. This district has become significantly more Republican has the party has made significant improvements among Hispanic voters in South Florida, particularly Cuban-American voters to make this district one of the least competitive in the state. Rep. Díaz-Balart has a 27% lead in the aggregate polling data.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
XXVII. FL-27:
A. Current Representative: Maria Elvira Salazar (R)
B. Population Distribution: Urban
C. Demographics: 74% Hispanic, 17% White, 7% African American
D. Cook PVI: EVEN (Toss-up)
E. Outlook: The Florida 27th District includes most of downtown Miami including Little Havana. Despite the EVEN CPVI, the district is strongly favored for Republicans. Incumbent Rep. Salazar has represented the district since 2020 when she won an upset election with 51% of the vote. Her district has now been redrawn to be much more favorable to her, going from a Biden +4 district to a Trump +1 district, a shift of five points for the Republicans. Rep. Salazar has been largely a moderate in Congress, voting for legislation which would strengthen gun control and codify same-sex marriage as law, while positioning herself as a staunch opponent of many government aid programs, a position which is popular in a district with many Cuban-Americans who hold fears about a perceived affinity for Communism growing within the Democratic party. Rep. Salazar has a 12% lead in the aggregate data and as a Republican incumbent in a red state, that all but ensures her victory in this heavily Hispanic district.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
XXVIII. FL-28:
A. Current Representative: Carlos Giménez (R)
B. Population Distribution: Largely Suburban, Many Rural Areas
C. Demographics: 73% Hispanic, 15% White, 11% African American
D. Cook PVI: R+2 (Toss-up)
E. Outlook: The Florida 28th District includes the entirety of the southern tip of Florida, stretching from the suburban city of Homestead all the way to Key West. Incumbent Rep. Giménez, former Mayor of Miami, has represented the district since 2020. He won that election by 3 points, which was a slight underperformance from former President Trump who won the district by 5 points. The newly redrawn district would have gone for the former President by 6 points, so it will be even more friendly for Rep. Giménez this time around. Republican candidates received around 13,000 more votes than Democrats in the closed primaries and Rep. Giménez holds a 18% lead in the aggregate polling data, a precursor to another successful outing for Republicans in South Florida’s majority Hispanic districts.
F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
Senate
Florida, like all states, has two seats in the Senate, one of which will be up for election this year. Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio is seeking his third term for Senator after first being elected to the seat in 2010. He ran uncontested in the Republican Primaries. His challenger in this election is Val Demings, current Representative of the 10th Congressional District. Demings overwhelmingly won the Democratic Primary with 84% of the vote. Sen. Rubio has overachieved in previous elections, winning in 2016 by more than 7% and in 2010 by 19% (that year, the Democratic vote was largely split between a Democratic candidate and a liberal Independent candidate). Polling has shown a narrowing gap for Rep. Demings, who was down by as much as 17% in February, but is now only down by a little over 3%. Sen. Rubio has led in almost all major polls, including those sponsored by the Demings campaign, although there is a large amount of undecided voters (around 9%). Although the polling has become more positive for Rep. Demings, Rubio should still have enough to defend his seat. A popular incumbent in a state which is turning more to the right, and who has aligned himself with former President Trump who won the state by 3%. The margin of Sen. Rubio’s victory will probably be around that margin as well and keep a vital Senate seat for the red for the Republicans.
Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
Governor
Finally, the final election in Florida is the race of Governor. Current incumbent Republican Ron DeSantis, one of the most popular Republicans in the country and widely considered to be among the field of Republicans who will try to become President in 2024, is seeking his second term as Governor of the Sunshine State. His opponent in the race is Charlie Crist, current Representative of the 13th Congressional District. Rep. Crist was the former Governor of Florida from 2007-2011, that time as a Republican, before he switched to the Democratic Party. Unlike the Senate race which has a slight chance of leading to a surprise victory for the Democrats, it would take a Herculean effort for Rep. Crist to unseat the wildly popular Ron DeSantis, who is currently polling ahead of former President Trump in the state in a hypothetical 2024 Republican primary for President. Gov. DeSantis is leading in the polls by just over 5%, with only around 5% of the vote being currently undecided. This race seems to be one final electoral victory for Gov. DeSantis before his bid for the nation’s highest office in 2024.
Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)
Analysis
The Millennial Agora is predicting that the House races in Florida will lead to four gains for the Republican Party, a highly pivotal amount in their bid to retake control of the House. Furthermore, we are predicting that the Senate seat as well as the Governor’s Mansion will remain in Republican control.
Thank you for reading our preview of the midterm elections in Florida. Check back tomorrow as we preview Georgia, a state which made a shocking turn to the Democrats in 2020 and Democrats are hoping to shore up support in the state pivotal to their new Southern strategy.
