• Schuyler Beltrami

2022 Midterms Preview –Missouri


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The Millennial Agora continues our complete preview of the upcoming midterm elections for Congress with the state of Missouri. A state of just over 6 million people, Missouri is a deep-red state in the Midwest. Anchored in the east by St. Louis and the west by Kansas City, Missouri is a relatively rural state outside of these two metropolitan areas and is known for its barbecue and beer-brewing tradition. The state was once close to a battleground state but has swung far to the right in recent elections. In 2020, former President Trump won the state by 15% and the last Democrat to win the state was Bill Clinton in 1996. In 2022, there will be elections in Missouri for the House of Representatives and Senate. Missouri is allocated eight seats in the House, a number which remained unchanged after redistricting. Currently six seats are occupied by Republicans and two seat is occupied by a Democrat.


House of Representatives

Missouri receives eight seats in the House of Representatives and all seats will be up for election in November. The overall CVPI for the entire state is R+10, making Missouri’s House races (taken as a whole) to be heavily favored for Republicans. (The CPVI, or Cook Partisan Voting Index, is the main metric to measure the strength of a political party for a particular House district or Senate seat. The measure was created and managed by the non-partisan Cook Political Report and uses historical data, as well as polling, to create the “partisan lean” of each district or state. A CPVI rating of R+15 would mean that on average, Republican candidates win elections in that district or state by an average of 15%, while a rating of D+15 would mean the same thing, but for the Democratic candidate. A district or state with a CPVI with double digits is considered to be non-competitive).


I. MO-01:

A. Current Representative: Cori Bush (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 49% African American, 40% White, 5% Asian, 5% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: D+27 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: Missouri’s first district includes all of downtown St. Louis, as well as all of the northern suburbs of the city. This district is the most liberal in the state and St. Louis is by far the most democratic area of the state. Rep. Cori Bush has represented the district since 2020 and was elected with 79% of the vote. She received more than three times as many votes by herself as all Republican candidates in the district’s closed primaries.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


II. MO-02:

A. Current Representative: Ann Wagner (R)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Suburban, Many Rural Areas

C. Demographics: 84% White, 6% Asian

D. Cook PVI: R+7 (Leans Republican)

E. Outlook: The Missouri second district includes western St. Louis suburbs, as well as many rural areas outside of the St. Louis metro areas. Rep. Wagner, who has represented the district since 2012, had her district significantly changed in redistricting to be much more favorable to Republicans. Under her old boundaries, the 2020 presidential race would have been a tie. Under the new boundaries, former President Trump would have won the district by eight points. That is very good news for a Republican incumbent in a red state in a favorable Republican year. Republicans earned more than 20,000 more votes than Democratic candidates in the primaries.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


III. MO-03:

A. Current Representative: Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)

B. Population Distribution: Majority Rural, Some Suburban Areas

C. Demographics: 85% White, 6% African American

D. Cook PVI: R+16 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: The Missouri 3rd District includes the eastern central part of the state, with the capital of Jefferson City, as well as the large St. Louis exurb of St. Charles and a part of the border with Illinois located in the district. Incumbent Rep. Luetkemeyer has represented the district since 2008 and was reelected with 69% of the vote in 2020. Republican candidates received around 3x more votes than Democrats in this conservative-friendly district.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


IV. MO-04:

A. Current Representative: Vicky Hartzler (R)

B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Rural

C. Demographics: 83% White, 6% African American, 5% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: R+23 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: The Missouri 4th District includes the western central part of the state, and besides parts of the city of Columbia, is a very rural district, which also borders Kansas. Incumbent Rep. Hartzler has represented the district since 2010 but chose not to run for reelection this year. The favorite to replace her is Republican nominee Mark Alford, who was a former local news anchor. He won a crowded Republican primary with 35% of the vote and received more than 10,000 more votes by himself than all Democratic candidates in the primaries.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


V. MO-05:


A. Current Representative: Emanuel Cleaver (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban and Suburban

C. Demographics: 58% White, 25% African American, 11% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: D+11 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Missouri 5th includes all of Kansas City as well as nearly all its suburbs. The district also includes parts of the state’s border with Kansas. Similar to the 1st District, the district is a small, urban, and very liberal district which is meant to concentrate all Democratic votes in one district. Incumbent Rep. Cleaver has represented the district since 2004 and was reelected with 59% of the vote in 2020. Democratic candidates earned nearly twice as many votes as Republican candidates in the primaries.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


VI. MO-06:

A. Current Representative: Sam Graves (R)

B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Rural

C. Demographics: 86% White, 5% African American

D. Cook PVI: R+21 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: The Missouri 6th is a large district which includes all of the northern third of the state. Included in the district are the northern Kansas City suburbs, as well as borders with Kansas, South Dakota, Iowa, and Illinois. Incumbent Rep. Graves has represented the district since 2000 and won reelection in 2020 with 67% of the vote. Republican candidates earned more than 3x more votes than Democrats in the primaries.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


VII. MO-07:

A. Current Representative: Billy Long (R)

B. Population Distribution: Majority Rural, Some Urban Areas

C. Demographics: 83% White, 6% Hispanic, 5% Native Americans

D. Cook PVI: R+24 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: The Missouri 7th district is located in the southwestern corner of the state and includes the cities of Springfield, Joplin and Branson, all of which are popular vacation destinations in the Midwest. The district also borders Kansas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Incumbent Rep. Long has represented the district since 2010, but is not seeking reelection this year, opting instead to run for the US Senate. The favorite to replace him is Republican nominee Eric Burlison, a current member of the Missouri State Senate. Mr. Burlison won a crowded primary with 38% of the vote, but still received nearly 2x more votes than all Democratic candidates in the primaries.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


VIII. MO-08:

A. Current Representative: Jason Smith (R)

B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Rural

C. Demographics: 87% White, 6% African American

D. Cook PVI: R+28 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: One of the most conservative districts in the country, the Missouri 8th is located in the southeastern corner of the state and includes borders with Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas and almost no cities, besides Cape Girardeau. Incumbent Rep. Smith has represented the district since 2012 and was reelected with 77% of the vote in 2020. Republican candidates received nearly 6x more votes than Democrats in the district’s primaries.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


Senate

The other race in Missouri in 2022 is for the Senate. Incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt announced his intention to not run for a third term in the Senate and so his seat became open. The favorite to replace him is fellow Republican Eric Schmitt, the current Missouri Attorney General, who won the Republican primary with 46% of the vote. His Democratic challenger in the race is Trudy Busch Valentine, a retired nurse and daughter of August Busch Jr., the man responsible for building the Anheuser-Busch beer company into the world’s largest brewer. She won a crowded Democratic primary with 43% of the vote. The polls for this deep red state have not been surprising and Mr. Schmitt has had a consistent lead of around 11%. That will probably be the floor of his success in this state and Republicans can be assured in keeping their Senate seat from Missouri in this election.

Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


Analysis

The Millennial Agora is predicting that the House races in Missouri will lead to no changes, and the Senate will remain in Republican hands.


Thank you for reading our preview of the midterm elections in Missouri. Check back tomorrow as we look at the races in Montana, a very large state in the West which was awarded with a second seat in the House due to rapid population growth mostly due to newcomers from other Western states.



The state of the House after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com

The state of the Senate after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com (States in light grey have no Senate seats up for election this year)

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