• Schuyler Beltrami

2022 Midterms Preview –Mississippi


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The Millennial Agora continues our complete preview of the upcoming midterm elections for Congress with the state of Mississippi. A state of just under 3 million people, Mississippi is a deep-red state in the Deep South. The poorest state in the nation, Mississippi has long suffered from an underdeveloped economy and political corruption, and the state has had trouble adapting from a largely agrarian economy to a more industrialized economy. The state also has the highest percentage of African Americans in the country, with 37% of the state’s population identifying as African American. In 2022, there will only be elections in Mississippi for the House of Representatives. Mississippi is allocated four seats in the House, a number which remained unchanged after redistricting. Currently, three seats are occupied by Republicans and one seat is occupied by a Democrat.


House of Representatives

Mississippi receives four seats in the House of Representatives, and all seats will be up for election in November. The overall CVPI for the entire state is R+11, making Mississippi’s House races (taken as a whole) to be heavily favored for Republicans. (The CPVI, or Cook Partisan Voting Index, is the main metric to measure the strength of a political party for a particular House district or Senate seat. The measure was created and managed by the non-partisan Cook Political Report and uses historical data, as well as polling, to create the “partisan lean” of each district or state. A CPVI rating of R+15 would mean that on average, Republican candidates win elections in that district or state by an average of 15%, while a rating of D+15 would mean the same thing, but for the Democratic candidate. A district or state with a CPVI with double digits is considered to be non-competitive).


I. MS-01:

A. Current Representative: Trent Kelly (R)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Some Urban Areas

C. Demographics: 65% White, 29% African American

D. Cook PVI: R+18 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: Mississippi’s first district includes the northeastern part of the state with the city of Columbus, as well as parts of the state’s borders with Tennessee and Alabama. Incumbent Rep. Kelly has represented the district since 2014 and was reelected in 2020 with 69% of the vote. Republican candidates earned around 3x more votes than all Democratic candidates in the district’s closed primaries.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


II. MS-02:

A. Current Representative: Bennie Thompson (D)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Some Urban and Suburban Areas

C. Demographics: 65% African American, 32% White

D. Cook PVI: D+11 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Mississippi second district includes the western part of the state along the Mississippi River, with the capital city of Jackson as well as the city of Natchez included in the district. The district goes along the state’s borders with Arkansas and Louisiana. Incumbent Rep. Thompson, who is currently the Chairman of the House Select Committee on January 6th, has represented the district since 1992. He was reelected in 2020 with 66% of the vote in this minority-majority district. He received around 5x more votes by himself than all Republican candidates in the district’s closed primaries.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


III. MS-03:

A. Current Representative: Michael Guest (R)

B. Population Distribution: Majority Rural, Some Urban Areas

C. Demographics: 59% White, 34% African American

D. Cook PVI: R+15 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: The Mississippi 3rd District is a large district encompassing most of the western and central parts of the state, stretching from the eastern border with Alabama to the western border with Louisiana. The city of Meridian, as well the eastern portion of Jackson, are included in the district. Incumbent Rep. Guest has represented the district since 2018, and he was reelected in 2020 with 65% of the vote. He holds a 36% lead in the aggregate polling data.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


IV. MS-04:

A. Current Representative: Steven Palazzo (R)

B. Population Distribution: Largely Rural, Some Urban Areas

C. Demographics: 66% White, 25% African American, 5% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: R+22 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: The Mississippi 4th District includes the southern portion of the state along the Gulf of Mexico and bordering Alabama and Louisiana. The coastal vacation towns of Gulfport and Biloxi, as well as the city of Hattiesburg, are all included in this district, which is the most conservative district in the state. Incumbent Rep. Palazzo, who had represented the district since 2010, lost in his primary to challenger Mike Ezell, a sheriff in Jackson County. Mr. Ezell received three times more votes than all Democratic candidates in the district’s closed primaries.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


Analysis

The Millennial Agora is predicting that the House races in Mississippi will lead to no changes.


Thank you for reading our preview of the midterm elections in Mississippi. Check back tomorrow as we look at the races in Missouri, a Midwestern state which has become very favorable to Republicans over the past few election cycles and where they hope to shore up a big lead already present in the state.



The state of the House after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com

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