• Schuyler Beltrami

2022 Midterms Preview –Massachusetts


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The Millennial Agora continues our complete preview of the upcoming midterm elections for Congress with the state of Massachusetts. A state of just under 7 million people, Massachusetts is the most populated state of the New England region and home to the region’s largest city, Boston. The state is often considered to be one of the most liberal states in the country and has not elected a Republican to the House of Representatives since 1994, but surprisingly does have a moderate Republican as the current Governor of the state. In 2020, President Joe Biden won the state by a margin of 33%. The last Republican to win the state was Ronald Reagan in 1984. In 2022, there will be elections in Massachusetts for the House of Representatives and Governor. Massachusetts is allocated nine seats in the House, and this number remained unchanged after redistricting. Currently all nine seats are occupied by Democrats.


House of Representatives

Massachusetts receives nine seats in the House of Representatives and all seats will be up for election in November. The overall CVPI for the entire state is D+15, making Massachusetts’s House races (taken as a whole) to be heavily favored for the Democrats. (The CPVI, or Cook Partisan Voting Index, is the main metric to measure the strength of a political party for a particular House district or Senate seat. The measure was created and managed by the non-partisan Cook Political Report and uses historical data, as well as polling, to create the “partisan lean” of each district or state. A CPVI rating of R+15 would mean that on average, Republican candidates win elections in that district or state by an average of 15%, while a rating of D+15 would mean the same thing, but for the Democratic candidate. A district or state with a CPVI with double digits is considered to be non-competitive).


I. MA-01:

A. Current Representative: Richard Neal (D)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Some Urban Areas

C. Demographics: 69% White, 19% Hispanic, 9% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+9 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: Massachusetts’s first district includes the western part of the state, with the state’s third-largest city, Springfield located in the district, as well as parts of the state’s borders with Vermont and the border with New York. Current incumbent Rep. Neal has represented the district since 1988. In 2020 he ran unopposed in this district. This election he does have Republican opposition, however he has a growing lead of around 27% in the aggregate polling data in this strongly blue district.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


II. MA-02:

A. Current Representative: Jim McGovern (D)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Some Urban Areas

C. Demographics: 71% White, 11% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 8% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+13 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Massachusetts second district includes the central part of the state with the college town of Amherst as well as parts of the states borders with Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. Incumbent Rep. McGovern has represented the district since 1996. He was reelected in 2020 with 65% of the vote. He has a 30% lead in the aggregate polling data.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


III. MA-03:

A. Current Representative: Lori Trahan (D)

B. Population Distribution: Majority Rural, Some Urban Areas

C. Demographics: 61% White, 22% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 7% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+11 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Massachusetts 3rd District includes the northern central part of the state with the trio of northern Massachusetts cities of Lowell, Lawrence, and Haverhill in the district as well as a part of the state’s border with New Hampshire. Incumbent Rep. Trahan has represented the district since 2018. She ran unopposed last year. Despite Republican opposition this year, she holds a 28% lead in the aggregate polling data.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


IV. MA-04:

A. Current Representative: Jake Auchincloss (D)

B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Suburban and Exurban

C. Demographics: 78% White, 8% Asian, 6% Hispanic, 5% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+12 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Massachusetts 4th District includes the southeastern part of the state and includes many of the suburbs between Boston and Providence, Rhode Island (the state with whom the district shares a border), including the large Boston suburb of Newton. Incumbent Rep. Auchincloss, who has represented the district since 2020, is running unopposed.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


V. MA-05:

A. Current Representative: Katherine Clark (D)

B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Suburban

C. Demographics: 65% White, 15% Asian, 11% Hispanic, 7% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+23 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Massachusetts 5th District includes the northwestern suburbs of Boston including Medford and Waltham. Incumbent Rep. Clark has represented the district since 2012 and was reelected in 2020 with 74% of the vote in this strongly Democratic suburban district.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


VI. MA-06:

A. Current Representative: Seth Moulton (D)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Suburban and Exurban, some Rural Areas

C. Demographics: 77% White, 11% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 5% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+11 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Massachusetts 6th district includes the far northeastern parts of the state, with the Boston suburbs of Lynn and Salem as well as a part of the state’s border with New Hampshire inside the district. Incumbent Rep. Moulton has represented the district since 2014 and was reelected in 2020 with 65% of the vote. He currently leads by 30% in the aggregate polling data.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


VII. MA-07:

A. Current Representative: Ayanna Pressley (D)

B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Urban

C. Demographics: 39% White, 26% African American, 22% Hispanic, 13% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+35 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Massachusetts 7th District includes most of Downtown Boston, as well as the college suburb of Cambridge. It is the most liberal district in the state and one of the most liberal districts in the country. Incumbent Rep. Pressley has represented the district since 2018. She was reelected in 2020 with 87% of the vote. A noted Progressive, Rep. Pressley holds a 74% lead in the aggregate polling data.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


VIII. MA-08:

A. Current Representative: Stephen Lynch (D)

B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Suburban

C. Demographics: 66% White, 14% African American, 11% Asian, 7% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: D+15 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Massachusetts 8th District includes the southern suburbs of Boston as well as about one-quarter of downtown Boston. Incumbent Rep. Lynch has represented the district since 2000 and was reelected in 2020 with 81% of the vote in this solidly Democratic suburban district.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


IX. MA-09:

A. Current Representative: Bill Keating (D)

B. Population Distribution: Largely Rural, Many Urban and Suburban Areas

C. Demographics: 83% White, 6% Hispanic, 5% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+6 (Leans Democratic)

E. Outlook: The only possible swing district in Massachusetts, the 9th District includes the southeastern part of the state and all of the popular vacation spot of Cape Cod, as well as Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. Incumbent Rep. Keating has represented the district since 2012 and was reelected in 2020 with 61% of the vote. He has survived in other red-wave years, which 2022 is predicted to be, and although some other rural districts in New England (such as in Maine) are prime districts to flip to the Republicans, there is a strong base of liberals in the Cape Cod region which should be enough to propel Rep. Keating to victory. He is currently leading by 18% in the aggregate polling data.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


Governor

The other election taking place in Massachusetts this year is for the Governor. Incumbent Republican Governor Charlie Baker is not seeking reelection in this election. The favorite to replace him is Democratic nominee Maura Healey, current Attorney General of the state, who easily won the Democratic primary with 71% of the vote. Her Republican challenger trying to hold on to the Governorship is Geoff Diehl, a former member of the Massachusetts House of Representatives from 2011-2019. Mr. Diehl won the Republican primary with 55%. Mr. Diehl, who was chosen by the Massachusetts Republican Party and was endorsed by former President Trump, is seen as being too far-right in the deep blue state of Massachusetts, and similar to the situation in Maryland, unelectable in a state which would only lend support to a moderate Republican such as current Gov. Baker. Polls conducted in the state have showed Ms. Healey with leads as high has 31%, but most average around 25% and she has a 21% lead in the aggregate polling data, meaning that Democrats are nearly guaranteed to retake the highest office in Boston.


Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (FLIP)


Analysis

The Millennial Agora is predicting that the House races in Massachusetts will lead to no changes in the House or Senate, with all nine seats going to the Democrats. Furthermore, the Democrats will regain control of the Governorship in Massachusetts, according to our predictions.


Thank you for reading our preview of the midterm elections in Massachusetts. Check back tomorrow as we look at the races in Michigan, a battleground state where Republicans are hoping to pick up some key wins with suburban and rural voters in a state which voted for Donald Trump in 2016, but flipped to President Biden in 2020.



The state of the House after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com

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