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  • Schuyler Beltrami

2022 Midterms Preview –Maryland


The Port of Maryland's Largest City, Baltimore (Photo: Pixabay)

The Millennial Agora continues our complete preview of the upcoming midterm elections for Congress with the state of Maryland. A state of just over 6 million people, Maryland is located in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. A deeply blue state thanks to its large urban area along the I-95 corridor stretching from the suburbs of Washington DC to Maryland’s largest city, Baltimore, (Maryland is the fourth most densely populated state in the country) the state has been a reliably Democratic state in national elections, despite being ran by a moderate Republican Governor. In 2020, President Biden won the state with 65% of the vote and the last Republican to win the state was George H.W. Bush in 1988. In 2022, there will be elections in Maryland for the House of Representatives as well as for the Senate and Governor. Maryland is allocated eight seats in the House, and this number remained unchanged after redistricting. Currently seven seats are occupied by Democrats and one is occupied by a Republican.


House of Representatives

Maryland receives eight seats in the House of Representatives and all seats will be up for election in November. The overall CVPI for the entire state is D+14, making Maryland’s House races (taken as a whole) to be heavily favored for the Democrats. (The CPVI, or Cook Partisan Voting Index, is the main metric to measure the strength of a political party for a particular House district or Senate seat. The measure was created and managed by the non-partisan Cook Political Report and uses historical data, as well as polling, to create the “partisan lean” of each district or state. A CPVI rating of R+15 would mean that on average, Republican candidates win elections in that district or state by an average of 15%, while a rating of D+15 would mean the same thing, but for the Democratic candidate. A district or state with a CPVI with double digits is considered to be non-competitive).


I. MD-01:

A. Current Representative: Andy Harris (R)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Some Exurban Areas

C. Demographics: 72% White, 17% African American, 6% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: R+11 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: Maryland’s first district includes the eastern part of the state (known as the Eastern Shore), as well as parts of northern Baltimore County on the western side of Chesapeake Bay, as well as parts of the state’s borders with Virginia, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. The district is the only one in the state to have a partisan rating which favors the Republicans. During the process of redistricting (which was controlled by the Democratic-led House of Delegates), the new congressional map of the Maryland first district was thrown out by a state judge for being too partisan in favor of Democrats, thus improving incumbent Rep. Harris’ chances of holding on to his seat which he has represented since 2010. In 2020 he was reelected with 63% of the vote. He ran unopposed in the district’s closed primaries and still received around 17,000 more votes than the Democratic candidates.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


II. MD-02:

A. Current Representative: Dutch Ruppersberger (D)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Many Suburban Areas

C. Demographics: 59% White, 26% African American, 7% Asian, 6% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: D+7 (Leans Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Maryland second district includes the central northern part of the state with many northern Baltimore suburbs, including the college town of Towson, as well as part of the state’s border with Pennsylvania being included in the district. Incumbent Rep. Ruppersberger has represented the district since 2002 and was reelected in 2020 with 68% of the vote. Despite having a relatively low partisan lean for the Democrats, the suburban areas of Baltimore are staunchly Democratic, and this was seen in the results of the district’s closed primaries where Rep. Ruppersberger, who did not run unopposed, received twice as many votes as all Republican candidates combined. He currently has a 19% lead in the aggregate polling data.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


III. MD-03:

A. Current Representative: John Sarbanes (D)

B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Urban and Suburban

C. Demographics: 57% White, 20% African American, 13% Asian, 9% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: D+10 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Maryland 3rd District includes many of the Washington DC and Baltimore suburbs which lie directly between the two cities (which have largely become one giant metropolitan area), as well as the state capital in Annapolis, home of the United States Naval Academy. Incumbent Rep. Sarbanes has represented the district since 2006 and was reelected in 2020 with 70% of the vote. He received around twice as many votes as all Republican candidates in the district’s closed primaries.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


IV. MD-04:

A. Current Representative: Anthony G. Brown (D)

B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Suburban

C. Demographics: 59% African American, 25% Hispanic, 11% White, 6% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+40 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Maryland 4th District includes the northern and eastern suburbs around Washington DC including the large suburb of College Park. The district has been represented by incumbent Rep. Brown since 2016, however Rep. Brown announced his intention to not seek reelection and instead run for Attorney General of Maryland. The overwhelming favorite to replace him is Democratic nominee Glenn Ivey, an unsuccessful candidate for Congress in 2016, who won a crowded Democratic primary with 52% of the vote. The district is tied with California’s 12th district for the most liberal district in the entire country and Democratic candidates received 78,000 more votes than Republican candidates in the district’s closed primaries, where Republicans only managed 4,000 votes in total.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


V. MD-05:

A. Current Representative: Steny Hoyer (D)

B. Population Distribution: Largely Suburban and Exurban, Some Rural Areas

C. Demographics: 44% White, 43% African American, 7% Hispanic, 5% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+15 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Maryland 5th District includes the southeastern part of the state with the far southeastern suburbs of Washington DC, as well as more rural areas along the western banks of Chesapeake Bay inside the district. Incumbent Rep. Hoyer, who has represented the district since 1980, is the current Majority Leader of the House of Representatives and the second-highest ranking Democrat in the House behind Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Rep. Hoyer is almost guaranteed to win a 21st term in Congress, as Democratic candidates received three times more votes than Republican candidates in the district’s closed primaries.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


VI. MD-06:

A. Current Representative: David Trone (D)

B. Population Distribution: Largely Rural, Some Urban and Suburban Areas

C. Demographics: 60% White, 15% African American, 13% Hispanic, 10% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+2 (Toss-up)

E. Outlook: The only swing district in the state, the Maryland 6th District includes the western half of the state, known as the Panhandle, and includes the cities of Frederick and Hagerstown, as well as the northwestern suburbs of Washington DC and parts of the state’s borders with Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. Incumbent Rep. Trone has represented the district since 2018. He was reelected in 2020 with 59% of the vote. His district became more competitive due to redistricting and flipping MD-06 is high on the list of Republican priorities this year, but it seems that the math is not on their side. To start with polling, Rep. Trone currently has a 2% lead in the aggregate polling, a lead which has grown from a deficit of nearly 3% at the end of June, representing a 5% swing in favor of the incumbent. In the most recent poll conducted in the district, which was released in the middle of August, Rep. Trone trailed his Republican challenger by 2%, but was well within the margin of error of 5%. Finally, a more reliable predictor, Democratic candidates received around 6,000 more votes in the district’s closed primaries. Although Rep. Trone did not run unopposed in the primary he defeated his two challengers easily by a margin of 63%, meaning that even in a relatively lopsided primary field, Democrats still managed high turnout. The two cities in this district, tend to be more red than other Maryland cities, and the Republicans will run up the score in the far-western rural areas, but the Washington DC suburbs should provide enough of a bump to propel Rep. Trone (who has a massive advantage in fundraising) to victory. Even in a strong Republican year, overcoming a 9% deficit is a tough ask.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


VII. MD-07:

A. Current Representative: Kweisi Mfume (D)

B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Urban

C. Demographics: 56% African American, 30% White, 9% Hispanic, 5% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+30 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Maryland 7th District includes all of Downtown Baltimore as well as its inner suburbs. Rep. Mfume, who is in his second stint as a Representative from Maryland, was reelected in 2020 with 72% of the vote. Democratic candidates received nearly 12x more votes than Republican candidates in this deeply blue minority-majority district.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


VIII. MD-08:

A. Current Representative: Jamie Raskin (D)

B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Suburban

C. Demographics: 44% White, 20% Hispanic, 19% African American, 16% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+29 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Maryland 8th District includes the northern and western suburbs of Washington DC including the large suburbs of Silver Spring and Bethesda. Incumbent Rep. Raskin, who led the second impeachment proceedings against former President Trump in 2021, has represented the district since 2016. He was reelected in 2020 with 68% of the vote. He received more than eight times more votes than all Republican candidates in the district’s closed primaries.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


Senate

Like all states, Maryland received two seats in the Senate, and one of these seats will be up for election in 2022. Incumbent Democratic Senator Chris van Hollen is seeking his second term in the Senate. He was elected in 2016 with 61% of the vote. He won a relatively non-competitive midterm with 81% of the vote. His Republican challenger, contractor and perennial candidate Chris Chaffee won a very crowded Republican primary with 21% of the vote. Democratic candidates received three times more votes than Republican candidates and Sen. Van Hollen leads by 27% in the aggregate polling data in this deep-blue state.

Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


Governor

The other election taking place in Maryland this year is for the Governor. Incumbent Republican Governor Larry Hogan is term-limited and cannot run for a third term. The favorite to succeed him is Democratic nominee Wes Moore, an author and former CEO of the Robin Hood Foundation, an anti-poverty charity and advocacy group based in New York City. He was able to win a very crowded and tightly-contested Democratic primary with 32% of the vote and by a margin of just 2%. His Republican challenger is Dan Cox, a state delegate in the 4th District of the Maryland House of Delegates. He won a more straightforward Republican primary with 52% of the vote and by a margin of around 8%. Mr. Cox defeated Kelly Schulz, the Maryland Secretary of Commerce and Secretary of Labor and the personal pick of outgoing Gov. Hogan. Mr. Cox is widely seen as unelectable in Maryland due to his more far-right leanings and endorsement from former President Trump, a highly unpopular President in Maryland. Against a more moderate candidate á la Gov. Hogan, Mr. Moore may have had a competitive race on his hands, but against the more far-right Mr. Cox, the Democrats should have no issue retaking the Governor’s Mansion in Annapolis.


Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


Analysis

The Millennial Agora is predicting that the House races in Maryland will lead to no changes in the House or Senate, with seven seats going to the Democrats and one going to the Republicans. Democratic Senator van Hollen will also win reelection, while the Democrats will regain control of the Governorship in Maryland, according to our predictions.


Thank you for reading our preview of the midterm elections in Maryland. Check back tomorrow as we look at the races in Massachusetts, a deep-blue state and the population center of New England.




The state of the House after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com


The state of the Senate after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com (States in light grey have no Senate seats up for election this year)

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