• Schuyler Beltrami

2022 Midterms Preview –Louisiana


The Louisiana Bayou (Photo: Pixabay)

The Millennial Agora continues our complete preview of the upcoming midterm elections for Congress with the state of Louisiana. A state of more than 4 million people, Louisiana is a deep red state in the Deep South of the United States. Louisiana is made up of many rural areas, as well as many smaller and medium-sized cities. The largest city in the state is New Orleans, which includes around one-quarter of the entire population of the state. The state, which rests at an extremely low elevation, is famous for its bayou swampland, which covers large parts of the state, especially in the southern part. The state has been a reliably Republican state for many years. In 2020, former President Trump won the state with 58% of the vote and the last Democrat to win the state was Bill Clinton in 1996. In 2022, there will be elections in Louisiana for the House of Representatives as well as for the Senate. Louisiana is allocated six seats in the House, and this number remained unchanged after redistricting. Currently, five seats are occupied by Republicans, and one seat is occupied by a Democrat.


House of Representatives

Louisiana receives six seats in the House of Representatives, and all seats will be up for election in November. The overall CVPI for the entire state is R+12, making Louisiana’s House races (taken as a whole) to be strongly in favor of the Republican Party. (The CPVI, or Cook Partisan Voting Index, is the main metric to measure the strength of a political party for a particular House district or Senate seat. The measure was created and managed by the non-partisan Cook Political Report and uses historical data, as well as polling, to create the “partisan lean” of each district or state. A CPVI rating of R+15 would mean that on average, Republican candidates win elections in that district or state by an average of 15%, while a rating of D+15 would mean the same thing, but for the Democratic candidate. A district or state with a CPVI with double digits is considered to be non-competitive).


I. LA-01:

A. Current Representative: Steve Scalise (R)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Many Suburban Areas

C. Demographics: 67% White, 15% African American, 12% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: R+23 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: Louisiana’s first district includes the southeastern corner of the state, including the large New Orleans suburb of Slidell and part of the state’s border with Mississippi. Incumbent Rep. Scalise has represented the district since 2008 and won reelection in 2020 with 72% of the vote. There were no primaries held for either party in the district, and Rep. Scalise holds a 43% lead in the aggregate polling data.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


II. LA-02:

A. Current Representative: Troy Carter (D)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Urban and Suburban

C. Demographics: 61% African American, 27% White, 9% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: D+25 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Louisiana second district encompasses all the city of New Orleans as well as many communities in the New Orleans metro area, as well as large parts of the state capital and college town of Baton Rouge. The district was created to contain the highly-liberal city of New Orleans within one district. Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter has represented the seat since winning a special election in 2021. He currently holds a 54% lead in the aggregate polling data.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


III. LA-03:

A. Current Representative: Clay Higgins (R)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Some Urban Areas

C. Demographics: 64% White, 27% African American, 5% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: R+21 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: The Louisiana 3rd district includes the southwestern part of the state including the cities of Lafayette and Lake Charles, as well as part of the state’s border with Texas. Incumbent Rep. Higgins has represented the district since 2016. Rep. Higgins, who is known for his ties to far-right, anti-government militia groups such as the Oath Keepers, is currently leading aggregate polling data by around 48% over Democratic challengers, however in the district’s open race, he is facing a challenge from fellow Republican Holden Hoggatt. Rep. Higgins was favored in an August poll by 8% over Mr. Hoggatt.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


IV. LA-04:

A. Current Representative: Mike Johnson (R)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Some Urban Areas

C. Demographics: 56% White, 36% African American, 5% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: R+14 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: The Louisiana 4th district includes the northwestern part of the state, with the city of Shreveport, as well as parts of the state’s border with Texas and Arkansas included in the district. Incumbent Rep. Johnson has represented the district since 2016 and won reelection in 2020 with 60% of the vote. He is running unopposed in this election.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


V. LA-05:

A. Current Representative: Julia Letlow (R)

B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Rural

C. Demographics: 58% White, 35% African American

D. Cook PVI: R+17 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: The Louisiana 5th district, which includes the northeastern part of the state, with the smaller cities of Monroe and Alexandria, as well as parts of the state’s borders with Arkansas and Mississippi. Incumbent Rep. Letlow has represented the district since she won a special election in 2021 to replace her late husband, Luke Letlow, who died in December 2020 from COVID-19. Although Rep. Letlow faces two other Republican challengers in the district, a Republican is almost guaranteed to win the district, as Republican candidates hold a 40% advantage in the aggregate polling data.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


VI. LA-06:

A. Current Representative: Garrett Graves (R)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Some Urban Areas

C. Demographics: 62% White, 26% African American, 7% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: R+19 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: The Louisiana 6th District includes the south central part of the state, with some of the suburbs of Baton Rouge as well. Incumbent Rep. Graves has represented the district since 2014 and was reelected in 2020 with 71% of the vote. There are no Democrats running in this race, but Rep. Graves does face a challenge from fellow Republican Brian Betzer, a local businessman.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


Senate

As with every other state, Louisiana has two seats in the Senate, with one of these seats being up for election in 2022. Incumbent Republican Senator John Kennedy (who has no relation to the legendary American political family) is seeking his second term in the Senate. He was first elected in 2016 with 61% of the vote and is strongly favored to win reelection in the deep-red state. The only true question will be if this race requires a run-off or not. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes on Election Night, there will be a run-off between the top two candidates, regardless of party. Currently, Sen. Kennedy is polling just over 50%. The most popular Democratic challenger is Gary Chambers, an activist and twice-unsuccessful candidate for the Louisiana State Senate and the United States House. If Sen. Kennedy is unable to secure a majority of votes on Election Night, he would most likely run against Mr. Chambers in a run-off, in which Sen. Kennedy would be heavily favored to win. No matter what happens on Election Night, Sen. Kennedy will earn a second-term in the Senate eventually.


Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


Analysis

The Millennial Agora is predicting that the House races in Louisiana will lead to no changes in the House or Senate, with five seats going Republican and one seat remaining with the Democrats. In the Senate, Sen. Kennedy will be reelected to the legislature, according to our predictions.


Thank you for reading our preview of the midterm elections in Louisiana. Check back tomorrow as we look at the races in Maine, the northernmost state in the continental United States and a state which is very much split between urban and rural lines.



The state of the House after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com

The state of the Senate after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com (States in light grey have no Senate seats up for election this year)

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