• Schuyler Beltrami

2022 Midterms Preview – Idaho


(Photo: Pixabay)

The Millennial Agora continues our complete preview of the upcoming midterm elections for Congress with the state of Idaho. A state of just under 2 million people, Idaho is a largely rural state in the Western United States. Known for its high amount of potato production, Idaho is one of the fastest growing states in the country, averaging around a 20% growth rate over the past two decades, most of this growth occurring in and around the capital and largest city, Boise. Despite its growth in population mostly from Pacific Northwestern states, Idaho has remained a staunchly Republican state, due in large part to an overwhelmingly white and rural population. In 2022, there will be elections in Idaho for the House of Representatives, Senate, and Governor. Currently, both of the state’s seats in the House of Representatives are represented by Republicans.


House of Representatives

Idaho receives two seats in the House of Representatives, and all seats will be up for election in November. The overall CVPI for the entire state is R+18, making Idaho’s House races (taken as a whole) to be solidly Republican. (The CPVI, or Cook Partisan Voting Index, is the main metric to measure the strength of a political party for a particular House district or Senate seat. The measure was created and managed by the non-partisan Cook Political Report and uses historical data, as well as polling, to create the “partisan lean” of each district or state. A CPVI rating of R+15 would mean that on average, Republican candidates win elections in that district or state by an average of 15%, while a rating of D+15 would mean the same thing, but for the Democratic candidate. A district or state with a CPVI with double digits is considered to be non-competitive).


I. ID-01:

A. Current Representative: Russ Fulcher (R)

B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Rural

C. Demographics: 83% White, 12% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: R+22 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: Idaho’s first district takes up the western half of the state and stretches from the southern border with Nevada, all the way to the border with the Canadian province of British Columbia. The district also includes borders with Oregon, Washington, and Montana along the long and thin Panhandle of the state. The district is overwhelmingly rural, with its few urban centers including Nampa, a suburb of Boise, and the city of Coeur D’Alene. Incumbent Rep. Fulcher has represented the district since 2018. In the district’s closed primaries, he received around eight times more votes than his Democratic challenger.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


II. ID-02:

A. Current Representative: Mike Simpson (R)

B. Population Distribution: Majority Rural, Many Urban Areas

C. Demographics: 78% White, 14% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: R+14 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: The Idaho 2nd District includes the entirety of the eastern half of the state and nearly all major population centers, including Boise, Pocatello, and Idaho Falls. It also includes borders with Montana, Wyoming, Utah, and Nevada. Incumbent Rep. Simpson has represented the district since 1998. He was reelected with 64% of the vote in 2020. Republican candidates earned around seven times more votes than Democratic candidates in the district’s closed primaries.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


Senate

Idaho, like all states, has two seats in the Senate, one of which will be up for election this year. Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Crapo is seeking his fifth term as Senator of Idaho, having been first elected in 1998. He easily won the Republican primary by a margin of around 57%. His Democratic challenger, David Roth, was a nominee for State Representative in 2020 and is seeking his first national office. Similar to the House races, the Senatorial race in Idaho is bound to be a blowout victory for Sen. Crapo. He received around five times more votes by himself than all Democratic candidates in the state’s closed primaries. He was reelected in 2016 by a margin of around 40%.

Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)

Governor

Finally, the final election in Idaho is the race for Governor. Incumbent Republican Governor Brad Little is running for a second term for the highest office in the state. He won the Republican primary over his primary challenger, Lieutenant Governor Janice McGeachin, by around 20%. His Democratic challenger, Stephen Heidt, a college instructor, received around six times fewer votes than Gov. Little in the state’s closed primaries. Like all races in Idaho this year, this race is categorized as “Safe Republican” by all major media outlets. Gov. Little won his first election in 2018 by a margin of more than 20%.

Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)



Analysis

The Millennial Agora is predicting that all House races in Idaho will lead to holds for the Republican Party. The Republicans will also come out on top in the Senate and Gubernatorial Elections in the state, according to our predictions.


Thank you for reading our preview of the midterm elections in Idaho. Check back tomorrow as we preview Illinois, home to Chicago, the country’s third-largest city and a state where Democrats are hoping to run up the score on Republicans and hand them some crucial wins for the control of the House.



The state of the House after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com

The state of the Senate after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com (States in light grey have no Senate seats up for election this year)

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