• Schuyler Beltrami

2022 Midterms Preview – Hawaii


The beaches of Maui (Photo: Pixabay)

The Millennial Agora continues our complete preview of the upcoming midterm elections for Congress with the state of Hawaii. A state of around 1.5 million people, the tropical paradise of Hawaii is a world-famous beach destination for Americans and foreigners alike. The majority of the state’s population is located in and around the capital city of Honolulu on the island of Oahu, with other islands such as the island of Hawai’i (also called the Big Island) and Maui also having sizable populations. Politically, the island state is deep blue, with all statewide offices being held by Democrats. In 2020, President Joe Biden won the state by a margin of 29% and no Republican has won a Presidential Election in Hawaii since Ronald Reagan in 1984. In 2022, there will be elections in Hawaii for the House of Representatives, Senate, and Governor. Currently, both of the state’s seats in the House of Representatives are represented by Democrats.


House of Representatives

Hawaii receives two seats in the House of Representatives, and all seats will be up for election in November. The overall CVPI for the entire state is D+14, making Hawaii’s House races (taken as a whole) to be solidly Democratic. (The CPVI, or Cook Partisan Voting Index, is the main metric to measure the strength of a political party for a particular House district or Senate seat. The measure was created and managed by the non-partisan Cook Political Report and uses historical data, as well as polling, to create the “partisan lean” of each district or state. A CPVI rating of R+15 would mean that on average, Republican candidates win elections in that district or state by an average of 15%, while a rating of D+15 would mean the same thing, but for the Democratic candidate. A district or state with a CPVI with double digits is considered to be non-competitive).


I. HI-01:

A. Current Representative: Ed Case (D)

B. Population Distribution: Overwhelmingly Urban and Suburban

C. Demographics: 68% Asian, 21% Pacific Islander, 15% White, 8% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: D+14 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: Hawaii’s first district is located entirely within Honolulu, the capital and largest city of the state, which is home to around half of the state’s population. Like the whole state, the first district is made up of a very high population of Asian-American and Pacific Islanders and is a reliably Democratic district. Incumbent Rep. Case has represented the district since 2018. In 2020, he was reelected with more than 70% of the vote.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


II. HI-02:

A. Current Representative: Kai Kahele (D)

B. Population Distribution: Largely Rural, Many Urban Areas

C. Demographics: 45% Asian, 33% Pacific Islander, 28% White, 11% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: D+14 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Hawaii 2nd District includes the rest of the state outside the Honolulu metro area. Incumbent Representative Kai Kahele announced his intention to run for Governor of the state, and so this seat is open. The favorite to replace Rep. Kahele is Jill Tokuda, who previously served as a State Senator. Democratic candidates received around four times more votes than Republican candidates in the district’s closed primaries.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


Senate

Hawaii, like all states, has two seats in the Senate, one of which will be up for election this year. Incumbent Democratic Senator Brian Schatz has represented the state in the Senate since he won a special election in 2014. He was elected to his first full term in 2016 by a margin of more than 50%. Sen. Schatz easily won the Democratic primary by nearly 90%. His challenger in this election will be Bob McDermott, who was a candidate for Governor in 2018 and current member of the Hawaii State House. Similar to the House races, the Senate race in Hawaii leans strongly to the left. Sen. Schatz received around four times more votes than all Republican candidates combined in the state’s closed primary and is guaranteed another six years in the Senate.

Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


Governor

Finally, the final election in Hawaii is the race for Governor. Current incumbent David Ige is term-limited and thus cannot run. The favorite to replace him is Democratic nominee Josh Green, who is the current Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii, a role he has held since 2018. His challenger in the race is Republican nominee Duke Aiona, who was Lieutenant Governor of the state between 2002-2010 and an unsuccessful candidate for Governor in 2010 and 2014. Hawaii’s blue streak continues into its Governor race as well. Mr. Green received around three times more votes by himself than all Republican candidates combined in the state’s closed primaries; a good omen for a Democratic in a deep blue state.

Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


Analysis

The Millennial Agora is predicting that all House races in Hawaii will lead to holds for the Democratic Party. The Democrats will also come out on top in the Senate and Gubernatorial Elections in the state, according to our predictions.


Thank you for reading our preview of the midterm elections in Hawaii. Check back tomorrow as we preview Idaho, a deep red state and one of the fastest-growing states in the country.



The state of the House after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com

The state of the Senate after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com (States in light grey have no Senate seats up for election this year)

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