• Schuyler Beltrami

2022 Midterms Preview –Delaware


A beach in Delaware (Photo: Pixabay)

The Millennial Agora continues our complete preview of the upcoming midterm elections for Congress with the state of Delaware. A state of just over one million people, Delaware is one of the smallest states in the country by both area and population. Located on the Mid-Atlantic Coast, Delaware is made up of only three counties, which change from urban and suburban to rural. The north is anchored by the state’s largest city, Wilmington, which has largely become a suburb of Philadelphia. The middle of the state is a mix of urban and rural and is the location of the state’s capital, Dover, which is also home to one of the largest military bases in the country. Finally, the southern part of the state is overwhelmingly rural and conservative, and is also home to many towns which serve as touristic beach towns in the summer for residents from surrounding states. The center of population in the state is Wilmington, a very liberal, largely working-class city and thus the state of Delaware, the home state of President Biden, has become a solidly blue state over the years, even if the southern parts of the state does vote a majority of the time for Republican candidates. In 2022, there will be elections in Delaware only for the state’s one seat in the House of Representatives, a seat which is currently occupied by a Democrat.


House of Representatives

Delaware receives one seats in the House of Representatives, and this seat will be up for election in November. The overall CVPI for the entire state is D+7, making Delaware’s House races (taken as a whole) to lean quite favorably for the Democratic Party. (The CPVI, or Cook Partisan Voting Index, is the main metric to measure the strength of a political party for a particular House district or Senate seat. The measure was created and managed by the non-partisan Cook Political Report and uses historical data, as well as polling, to create the “partisan lean” of each district or state. A CPVI rating of R+15 would mean that on average, Republican candidates win elections in that district or state by an average of 15%, while a rating of D+15 would mean the same thing, but for the Democratic candidate. A district or state with a CPVI with double digits is considered to be non-competitive).


I. DE-AL:

A. Current Representative: Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban, with Many Suburban and Rural Parts

C. Demographics: 60% White, 22% African American, 11% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: D+7 (Leans Democratic)

E. Outlook: Delaware’s at-large district contains the entire state. The state has been represented in the House by Rep. Rochester since 2016. She is running for the third time in as many elections against Republican nominee Lisa Murphy, who has lost in the previous two elections to Rep. Rochester. In the previous two elections, Rep. Rochester won by 29% (2018) and 17% (2020). Although the margin of victory for Rep. Rochester did drop by a considerable amount between the past two elections, there is still more than enough of a Democratic voting base for her to retain her seat. Aggregate data in polling shows Rep. Rochester with a 17% lead.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


Analysis

The Millennial Agora is predicting that all races in Delaware with result in holds for the Democratic Party.


Thank you for reading our preview of the midterm elections in Delaware. Check back tomorrow as we preview Florida, a state which is rapidly turning into a state of solid support for Republicans, as Democrats hope to retain some of their popularity among the all-important Hispanic voting group of the Sunshine State.



The state of the House after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com

The state of the Senate after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com (States in light grey have no Senate seats up for election this year)

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