• Schuyler Beltrami

2022 Midterms Preview –Connecticut


Yale University in New Haven, CT. (Photo: Pixabay)

The Millennial Agora continues our complete preview of the upcoming midterm elections for Congress with the state of Connecticut. A state of just under four million people, Connecticut is the first state in New England which we have previewed for our midterm previews. Connecticut is largely an urban and suburban state. A part of the New York City Tri-State Area, the southwestern part of Connecticut is made up of large towns such as Bridgeport and Stamford and is home to many upper middle-class neighborhoods with people who commute to New York City for work. The state’s capital, Hartford, forms a large urban area in the north of the state. In the west, the exclusive cities of Danbury and Waterbury are highly affluent areas home to some of the wealthiest towns in America. Meanwhile, the state’s east is predominantly rural. Like many parts of New England, Connecticut has long been a strong area of support for the Democratic Party. In 2022, there will be elections in Connecticut for the House of Representatives, Senate, and Governor of the state. Connecticut has five seats in the House of Representatives, which did not change from the last Congressional Session, but many of the existing districts were redrawn. Currently all five seats are occupied by Democrats.


House of Representatives

Connecticut receives five seats in the House of Representatives and all seats will be up for election in November. The overall CVPI for the entire state is D+7, making Connecticut’s House races (taken as a whole) to lean quite favorably for the Democratic Party. (The CPVI, or Cook Partisan Voting Index, is the main metric to measure the strength of a political party for a particular House district or Senate seat. The measure was created and managed by the non-partisan Cook Political Report and uses historical data, as well as polling, to create the “partisan lean” of each district or state. A CPVI rating of R+15 would mean that on average, Republican candidates win elections in that district or state by an average of 15%, while a rating of D+15 would mean the same thing, but for the Democratic candidate. A district or state with a CPVI with double digits is considered to be non-competitive).


I. CT-01:

A. Current Representative: John Larson (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban, with many Suburban and Rural Areas

C. Demographics: 61% White, 18% Hispanic, 15% African American, 6% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+12 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: Connecticut’s first district contains the state capital, Hartford, along with rural areas along the border with Massachusetts. The incumbent Representative John Larson has represented the district since 1998. There was no primary in the district since both parties only had one candidate. Rep. Larson has usually won elections in the district by around 30%.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


II. CT-02:

A. Current Representative: Joe Courtney (D)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Some Small Urban

C. Demographics: 80% White, 9% Hispanic, 4% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+3 (Toss-Up)

E. Outlook: The Connecticut second district encompasses almost the entirety of the eastern half of Connecticut and features many of the rural areas along the borders with Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Incumbent Rep. Courtney has represented the district since 2006. One of Connecticut’s two competitive districts, the Connecticut 2nd has long been an easy electoral win for Rep. Courtney (in 2018 he won by nearly 30%, and in 2020 he won by over 20%), but the district has become more competitive, despite remaining relatively unchanged by redistricting. President Joe Biden only won the district by 10%, representing a significant cut in the margins from what Rep. Courtney has received. Like in the Connecticut 1st, there was no primary in this district since both parties only put up one candidate. The Republican candidate, Mike France, is a current Representative in the Connecticut State House. At the beginning of the summer, polling showed a 4% lead for Rep. Courtney. This number has since grown to just less than 8%. In a blue state where Democrats are feeling a high amount of momentum nationally, Rep. Courtney should be able to hold on to his seat, even if his margin of victory may slip into the single digits.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


III. CT-03:

A. Current Representative: Rosa DeLauro (D)

B. Population Distribution: Majority Urban and Suburban, Some Rural

C. Demographics: 63% White, 17% Hispanic, 15% African American, 5% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+7 (Leans Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Connecticut 3rd district consists of the college town of New Haven along with its suburbs on the southern coast of Connecticut. Rep. DeLauro has represented the district since 1990. Once again there was no primary in this district. Although the rural districts north of New Haven have turned redder, the strong voting base of liberal Democrats in New Haven are enough to keep this seat a Yale-colored shade of blue. Polling data shows Rep. DeLauro with an 18% lead.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


IV. CT-04:

A. Current Representative: Jim Himes (D)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Urban and Suburban, Some Rural

C. Demographics: 61% White, 21% Hispanic, 12% African American, 6% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+13 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The Connecticut 4th district includes the cities and towns of the New York Metropolitan Area including Bridgeport and Stamford. The district has a very high median income of over $100,000 and many of its residents commute to New York City. Rep. Himes has represented the district since 2008. Polling averages show him with a lead of nearly 30%.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


V. CT-05:

A. Current Representative: Jahana Hayes (D)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Urban and Suburban, Some Rural

C. Demographics: 67% White, 21% Hispanic, 8% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+3 (Toss-Up)

E. Outlook: The Connecticut 5th district is located in the western third of the state, includes the cities of Danbury and Waterbury, and shares borders with both Massachusetts and New York. Rep. Hayes has represented the district since 2018. The district has become a target for the Republican Party who believe that the mix of wealthy Republican voters and rural conservatives may be enough to flip this district red. However, the math may not be in their favor. Republican nominee George Logan, a former State Senator, has kept the polling relatively close, but has trailed in every poll, including those conducted by his own campaign. Over the past month, the polling has become even stronger for Rep. Hayes. At the end of June, the two candidates were exactly tied in the aggregate data. Now Rep. Hayes is up by over 5%. Rep. Hayes won reelection in 2020 by 12 points and President Biden won the district by 11 points. Despite serious money spent on advertising in the district by Mr. Logan’s campaign, the Democratic base in this blue state remains staunch, especially in a year which has seen the Democrats gain momentum nationally. However, a Republican victory in the Connecticut 5th on Election Night would mean a fantastic night for the rest of the party on a national scale.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


Senate

As with every other state, Connecticut has two seats in the Senate, with one of these seats being up for election in 2022. Incumbent Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal is seeking a third term in the Senate, having been first elected to the seat in 2010. There was no Democratic primary in Connecticut. The Republican seeking to unseat him is Leora Levy, a businesswoman, member of the Republican National Committee and former nominee for US Ambassador to Chile. Ms. Levy has received endorsements from Pro-Life advocacy groups, as well as former President Donald Trump. She was victorious in the Republican primary by around 10%. The race has become in many ways a portrayal of opinions on former President Trump, with Sen. Blumenthal being one of the most outspoken critics of the former President, while Ms. Levy has positioned herself as a staunch ally of the America First movement. In a relatively deep blue state like Connecticut, Ms. Levy is sure to receive many votes from rural areas, but Sen. Blumenthal can count on many more votes from urban and suburban areas throughout the state. Current polling shows the Senator with an average lead of just under 20%. Most media outlets have categorized this race as “Solid Democratic”.


Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


Governor

The third and final race in Connecticut is for Governor of the state. Incumbent Democratic Governor Ned Lamont, who has been Governor since 2018 is facing his opponent from that race, businessman Bob Stefanowski. The 2018 race was surprisingly close, with Gov. Lamont winning by only 3% and required heavy turnout from the Hartford and New York City Metropolitan Area to win. For Gov. Lamont there is much good news on his side: Democrats are feeling increasingly confident about the upcoming midterm elections, he is running in a blue state as a Democratic incumbent and he has never trailed in the polls. For most of the summer, Gov. Lamont enjoyed a 10% lead in polling and over the past month this has grown to more than 14%. Finally, in 2020, President Biden won Connecticut with 59% of the vote, an improvement of Hillary Clinton’s tally of 55% from 2016. For Mr. Stefanowski, he has been unable to capture the same positives as many other Republicans around the country and in a blue state, a 14% margin in polling is nearly insurmountable. It seems that the 2022 Gubernatorial Election will go the same way as the 2018 Election, but with perhaps a larger margin of victory for Gov. Lamont.


Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


Analysis

The Millennial Agora is predicting that all races in Connecticut with result in holds for the Democratic Party.


Thank you for reading our preview of the midterm elections in Connecticut. Check back tomorrow as we preview Delaware, one of America’s smallest states and the home state of President Biden.



The state of the House after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com

The state of the Senate after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com (States in light grey have no Senate seats up for election this year)

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