• Schuyler Beltrami

2022 Midterms Preview –California


(Photo. Wix Media)

The Millennial Agora continues our complete preview of the upcoming midterm elections for Congress with the state of California. A state of just under 40 million people, California is the most populous state in the United States and accounts for more than 10% of the entire population of the country. Although the state has a stereotype of being a Democratic stronghold, there are a handful of House races which are tossups this year and Republicans are hoping to make key gains with wins in these purple districts. Most of these tossup districts are in the central and northern part of the state, as well as districts in the metropolitan Los Angeles area. In 2022, there will be elections in California for the House of Representatives, Senate, and Governor of the state. California, as the most populous state, has 52 seats in the House of Representatives, a reduction of one seat after redistricting in 2020 to reflect changes in the United States’ population, and many of the districts were redrawn, meaning that some incumbents have been switched into different districts. Currently 42 seats are occupied by Democrats and 11 are occupied by Republicans.


House of Representatives

California receives 52 seats in the House of Representatives and all seats will be up for election in November. The overall CVPI for the entire state is D+13, making California’s House races (taken as a whole) to be strongly in favor of the Democratic Party. (The CPVI, or Cook Partisan Voting Index, is the main metric to measure the strength of a political party for a particular House district or Senate seat. The measure was created and managed by the non-partisan Cook Political Report and uses historical data, as well as polling, to create the “partisan lean” of each district or state. A CPVI rating of R+15 would mean that on average, Republican candidates win elections in that district or state by an average of 15%, while a rating of D+15 would mean the same thing, but for the Democratic candidate. A district or state with a CPVI with double digits is considered to be non-competitive).


I. CA-01:

A. Current Representative: Doug LaMalfa (R)

B. Population Distribution: Largely Rural, Some Urba

C. Demographics: 72% White, 15% Hispanic, 3% Asian

D. Cook PVI: R+12 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: California’s first district is one of the most Republican districts in the state and includes the entirety of the northeastern corner of the state, as well as the city of Redding. The district borders both Nevada and Oregon. Current Representative Doug LaMalfa, a rice farmer who has spent a large part of his time in Congress advocating for more farm subsidies, has been occupying this seat since 2012 and has received an endorsement from former President Donald Trump. Although his district was made smaller due to redistricting, it was not made more competitive. Rep. LaMalfa has won nearly all his elections by 10% or more.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


II. CA-02:

A. Current Representative: Jared Huffman (D)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Some Urban

C. Demographics: 66% White, 20% Hispanic, 4% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+23 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California second district encompasses the entirety of the northwestern coast of California, from the border with Oregon to the San Francisco Bay Area, including the Napa Valley wine growing district. With one of the highest median incomes of any district in the country ($80,000+), the California 2nd is populated with many white, college-educated voters. Current Representative Jared Huffman has been representing the district since 2012 and has won nearly all his elections by more than 50%.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


III. CA-03:

A. Current Representative: John Garamendi (D)

B. Population Distribution: Majority Rural

C. Demographics: 43% White, 32% Hispanic, 12% Asian, 6% African American

D. Cook PVI: R+4 (Leans Republican)

E. Outlook: The California 3rd district is now an open seat after incumbent Democratic Rep. Garamendi elected to give up his seat and instead run for reelection in the California 8th district. The district, a minority-majority district, is one of the largest in the country and covers a majority of the California-Nevada border. The seat has become competitive due to affluent voters near Lake Tahoe, as well as liberal votes in the Sacramento suburbs. The seat has changed in most media outlets predictions from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican”, meaning that recent polls have been more favorable to Democrats. However, there has also been good news for Republicans in the district. Not only did the district vote for Donald Trump in 2020, but Republicans also gathered 56% of all votes cast in the open-party primary. The Republican nominee is Kevin Kiley, who is currently a member of the California State Assembly and also unsuccessfully ran for Governor in 2021. The candidate for the Democrats is Kermit Jones, a US Navy veteran and doctor. The 2022 midterms are going to be a favorable year for Republicans (even if Democrats have made that more uncertain over the past few months) and so a district with a CPVI rating that favors Republican, in a district which voted for Donald Trump, is good news for State Rep. Kiley.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (GAIN)


IV. CA-04:

A. Current Representative: Tom McClintock (R)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Many Urban Areas

C. Demographics: 70% White, 15% Hispanic, 6% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+17 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 4th district, much like the 2nd district, is inhabited by many wealthy, white voters and includes the cities of Napa and Santa Rosa. The seat will be open for this election, as incumbent Rep. Tom McClintock is not seeking reelection in the district, instead opting to run in the 5th district. The Democratic candidate is Mike Thompson, who has been a member of the House from California’s 5th District since 2013, received endorsements from both California senators and received 2/3 of all votes in the open-party primary, good news for a Democrat in a strong Democratic district.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (GAIN)


V. CA-05:

A. Current Representative: Mike Thompson (D)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Partly Urban

C. Demographics: 45% White, 30% Hispanic, 12% Asian, 6% African American

D. Cook PVI: R+9 (Likely Republican)

E. Outlook: The California 5th district, like many in the central part of the state, is mostly rural and includes a high amount of Hispanic voters. The 5th district includes some parts of the cities of Modesto and Fresno, as well as much of Yosemite National Park. Current Representative Mike Thompson has elected to run for reelection in the California 4th district, a much more favorable district for him. Republican nominee Tom McClintock has been the Representative from the 4th district since 2008 and received endorsements from both Donald Trump as well as former Representative and national Republican strategist Devin Nunes. Republicans earned around 2/3 of all votes in the district’s open primary. Although the district has become more competitive due to the redistricting, there are still not nearly enough Democratic voters to challenge in the district. Almost all media outlets have categorized this race as “Solid Republican”.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (GAIN)


VI. CA-06:

A. Current Representative: Doris Matsui (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 34% White, 29% Hispanic, 17% Asian, 12% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+7 (Leans Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 6th District includes most of the northern and eastern areas of Sacramento, the capital of California. The current incumbent, Doris Matsui, has opted to run in the 7th district instead meaning the seat will be contested by two new candidates. The Democrat, and favorite in the race, is current Representative of the 7th District, Ami Bera, who has been in Congress since 2012. The Republican challenger in the race is pastor and US Air Force veteran Tamika Hamilton, who finished in second in 2020 for the seat in the California 3rd district. Rep. Bera won the open-party primary in the district by around 50,000 votes, but only received about half of the total amount of votes. The district has become more competitive due to redistricting and a more conservative voting base around Hispanic voters, but remains a safe district for Democrats. Most media outlets have categorized the race as being “Solid Democratic”.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


VII. CA-07:

A. Current Representative: Ami Bera (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 48% White, 19% Asian, 18% Hispanic, 7% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+17 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 7th District includes all of the inner city of Sacramento, California’s capital city. The current incumbent, Ami Bera, switched to the 6th district and the current incumbent in that district, Doris Matsui, is now running for reelection in the California 7th. Rep. Matsui has been in Congress since 2012. A solidly blue district, in which Democrats won around 70% of the vote in the open-party primary, is good news for a Democratic incumbent candidate.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


VIII. CA-08:

A. Current Representative: John Garamendi (D)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Urban

C. Demographics: 43% Hispanic, 40% White, 9% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+26 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: One of the most Democratic districts in the country, the CA-08 consists of the northeastern area of the Bay Area and the cities of Fairfield and Vallejo. Due to redistricting, the incumbent switched from Republican Jay Obernolte to Democrat John Garamendi. Democrats received 80% of the vote in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


IX. CA-09:

A. Current Representative: Jerry McNerney (D)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Urban, Minority Rural

C. Demographics: 40% Hispanic, 29% White, 16% Asian, 9% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+5 (Leans Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 9th includes the city of Stockton and combines its large urban area with many smaller towns and rural areas in San Joaquin County. Current Representative Jerry McNerney announced his retirement prior to the primary, and so the seat will be contested by two new candidates. The Democratic nominee, Josh Harder, is the current Representative of California’s 10th District. The Republican nominee, Tim Patti, is the Chair of the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors and seeking his first national office. There are some good signs for Rep. Harder, not only that the district leans Democrat, but also that President Biden won the district by 13 points in 2020. However, the open-party primary vote was split nearly 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans and polling has showed a large amount of undecided voters in the district, offering an attractive opportunity for a Republican gain. However, a minority-majority district in a district that leans Democrat will be a big challenge for a Republican party which has struggled mightily in the district in recent years. A high turnout will be key for Rep. Harder to keep his seat in Congress from his new home district.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


X. CA-10:

A. Current Representative: Josh Harder (D)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Urban, some Suburban

C. Demographics: 45% Hispanic, 37% White, 9% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+18 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 10th District encompasses the northern part of the East Bay in the Bay Area. A heavy blue district, the incumbent changed to Democrat Mark DeSaulnier. His only opponent in the race is Green Party candidate Michael Kerr.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XI. CA-11:

A. Current Representative: Nancy Pelosi (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 41% White, 28% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 8% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+37 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: One of the most liberal districts in the country, the California 11th is located in the downtown area of San Francisco and is represented by current Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, who may lose her position as Speaker in November, if Republicans take back control of the House. While she may be panicking about losing her spot as Speaker, she will not have to panic about winning this deep blue seat in one of America’s richest cities.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XII. CA-12:

A. Current Representative: Barbara Lee (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 41% White, 32% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 5% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+40 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 12th district includes a majority of the East Bay and the cities of Oakland and Berkeley, home to the University of California. The district is the most Democratic district in California.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XIII. CA-13:

A. Current Representative: None

B. Population Distribution: Split Urban and Rural

C. Demographics: 33% White, 24% Hispanic, 21% Asian, 15% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+4 (Leans Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 13th District includes a majority of the Central Valley and the cities of Modesto and Merced. A highly diverse district, the 13th is a newly formed seat without an incumbent. The Democratic nominee is Adam Gray, a State Assemblyman who received around 31% of the vote in the open-party primary. In total, Democratic candidates received 48% of the vote. The Republican candidate, John Duarte, is a farmer and businessman from the area and won the open-party primary with 34% of the vote, and Republican candidates did receive a majority of votes in the open-party primary. However, the district voted for Joe Biden by 11 points in 2020 and a strong base of minority voters gives a slight edge to Democrats. Still, the California 13th is labelled as toss-up by many leading media outlets. Polling has suggested that more undecided voters support the Democrat Adam Gray, and the rest of the undecided voters, who make up around 10% of the electorate, will largely this important election in a part of California which has long been a battleground for both parties.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (GAIN)


XIV. CA-14:

A. Current Representative: Eric Swalwell (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 35% Asian, 31% White, 24% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: D+22 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: One of the few districts in the country with a plurality of Asian-Americans, the California 14th District includes the southern third of the East Bay area of the Bay Area. This includes the cities of Hayward and Fremont. Incumbent Eric Swalwell was the Representative from the 15th district, a district he has represented since 2012. Democratic candidates received almost 70% of the vote in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XV. CA-15:

A. Current Representative: Jackie Speier (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 38% Asian, 27% White, 23% Hispanic, 5% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+28 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: Another district with a plurality of Asian-Americans, the California 15th includes a majority of San Mateo County just south of the downtown area of San Francisco. Current Representative Jackie Speier announced she would not be seeking reelection. Two Democrats, David Canepa and Kevin Mullin, finished in the top two places in the open-party primary, meaning that only Democrats will be competing in this race.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XVI. CA-16:

A. Current Representative: Anna Eshoo (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 63% Hispanic, 20% White, 9% Asian, 5% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+26 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 16th District is centered in Silicon Valley and the tech towns of Palo Alto and Mountain View. Stanford University, as well as the global headquarters of both Facebook and Google are located in this highly affluent district. Two Democrats, including incumbent Representative Anna Eshoo, finished in the top two spots in the open-party primary, meaning that only Democrats will take part in this election.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XVII. CA-17:

A. Current Representative: Ro Khanna (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 59% Asian, 20% White, 15% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: D+23 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 17th District includes the southern part of Silicon Valley and the cities of Cupertino (home to Apple’s world headquarters) and Santa Clara. Incumbent Ro Khanna has been representing the district in Congress since 2016. Democratic candidates received over 70% of the votes in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XVIII. CA-18:

A. Current Representative: Zoe Lofgren (D)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Urban, Some Rural

C. Demographics: 48% White, 26% Asian, 17% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: D+21 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 18th District includes parts of San José, but also extends down to the city of Watsonville, over 40 miles away. Incumbent Zoe Lofgren has represented the district since 2012. Democrats, who receive a large majority of their support from voters in San José, received nearly 70% of the vote in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XIX. CA-19:

A. Current Representative: Jimmy Panetta (D)

B. Population Distribution: Majority Rural, Some Urban

C. Demographics: 39% Hispanic, 30% Asian, 23% White

D. Cook PVI: D+18 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 19th District extends down the Pacific Coast from just south of San Francisco all the way to the popular vacation town of Monterey. A long and varied district, most of the district’s area is rural, but most of the cities in the district lean heavily to the left. Incumbent Representative Jimmy Panetta has represented the district since 2016. Democrats received around 70% of the vote in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XX. CA-20:

A. Current Representative: Kevin McCarthy (R)

B. Population Distribution: Rural

C. Demographics: 55% Hispanic, 33% White, 5% Asian

D. Cook PVI: R+16 (Strong Republican)

E. Outlook: The California 20th District, much like the 11th, will have much more drama for the national Congressional leadership than for the result of this election. Incumbent Kevin McCarthy is currently the House Minority Leader, the highest-ranking Republican in the House. While his victory in his home district is ensured, he is seeking to become the new leader of the House if Republicans can flip six seats to regain control of the House. This district covers a large area in the Central Valley and is overwhelmingly rural with a large part of the land owned directly by the federal government for National Forests and National Parks.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


XXI. CA-21:

A. Current Representative: Jim Costa (D)

B. Population Distribution: Largely Rural, Some Urban

C. Demographics: 75% Hispanic, 15% White

D. Cook PVI: D+9 (Likely Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 21st District includes the city of Fresno and the vast agricultural heartland to the city’s south. The district, which is overwhelmingly Hispanic, has been represented by incumbent Representative Jim Costa since 2012. While Hispanic voters have gone more conservative over the past election cycles, making this district slightly competitive, the edge still lies with Rep. Costa. Democratic candidates earned just less than 60% of the vote in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XXII. CA-22:

A. Current Representative: David Valadao (R)

B. Population Distribution: Largely Rural, Some Suburban

C. Demographics: 49% Hispanic, 35% White, 9% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+5 (Leans Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 22nd District is another district of the Central Valley which has become a battleground for both parties. Incumbent Representative David Valadao was able to win this seat in 2020 by only one point, despite the district voting for President Biden by 11 points. The newly-drawn district would have voted for President Biden by 13 points however, which eliminates Rep. Valadao’s slim lead. Further problems for Rep. Valadao come from the Republican base. Rep. Valadao was one of only ten House Republicans to vote to impeach former President Donald Trump in the aftermath of January 6th. Of those ten, only two, including Rep. Valadao, made it past the primaries, and Rep. Valadao only earned a spot in the primaries by 2%. However, it is not all bad for the Republicans in this district. Republicans earned around 55% of the vote in the open-party primary, and Rep. Valadao’s Democratic challenger, Rudy Salas, was the only Democrat running in the primary and could still only muster 45% of the vote. Latest polling has shown that as much as 27% of voters in the area remain either undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate in the upcoming election, signifying general unpopularity for both candidates. However, the latest polling has shown rapid improvement for Mr. Salas, who has not trailed in a poll since late August. The California 22nd is exactly the type of district which Democrats are hoping to gain to keep a very slim chance of keeping the House in November. There is still a lot of time between the publication of this article and November, but with national momentum on the side of the Democrats right now, being a blue-state Democrat in a district with a plurality of minority voters is a good spot to be in.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (GAIN)


XXIII. CA-23:

A. Current Representative: Jay Obernolte (R)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, Some Urban

C. Demographics: 43% Hispanic, 40% White, 6% African American, 5% Asian

D. Cook PVI: R+8 (Likely Republican)

E. Outlook: The California 23rd is a large district that includes the southern California city of Victorville and stretches to the border with Nevada. Incumbent Rep. Jay Obernolte has represented the district since 2020 and received 61% of the vote in the all-party primary as the only Republican winning. The district voted for former President Donald Trump by 10% in 2020, a good sign for an incumbent Republican in a mostly rural district.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


XXIV. CA-24:

A. Current Representative: Salud Carbajal (D)

B. Population Distribution: Majority Rural, Some Urban

C. Demographics: 51% White, 38% Hispanic, 5% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+13 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 24th District includes most of the Central Coast northwest of Los Angeles, with the surfside beach cities of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo located in the district. Incumbent Rep. Carbajal has represented the district since 2016 and received 60% of the vote in the open-party primary as the lone Democratic candidate. The district may not be as a deeply blue as some of the districts closer to LA but remains firmly within Democratic control.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XXV. CA-25:

A. Current Representative: Raul Ruiz (D)

B. Population Distribution: Majority Rural, Some Urban and Suburban

C. Demographics: 42% Hispanic, 36% White, 9% Asian, 8% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+6 (Leans Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 25th District is a very large district which includes all of the “Inland Empire”, the southeastern corner of California which stretches from the city of Palm Springs to the border with Arizona. The district also shares a long border with Mexico. Incumbent Representative Raul Ruiz has represented the district since 2012. The district has become slightly more competitive with the move towards conservatism by many Hispanics along with desires for stronger border security by many living in the parts of the district near the US-Mexican border. Still, the district voted for President Joe Biden by 10 points and Rep. Ruiz gathered 56% of the vote in the open-party primary as the lone Democratic candidate.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XXVI. CA-26:

A. Current Representative: Julia Brownley (D)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Urban and Suburban

C. Demographics: 46% Hispanic, 41% White, 7% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+8 (Likely Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 26th District includes the affluent cities to the northwest of Los Angeles, including Oxnard, Thousand Oaks and the Simi Valley. Incumbent Representative Julia Brownley received 54% of the vote in the all-party primary as the only Democratic nominee. Since the primaries, polls have shown a coalescing of undecided voters around the Democratic incumbent, good news for an incumbent in a district which became slightly more competitive due to redistricting.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XXVII. CA-27:

A. Current Representative: Mike Garcia (R)

B. Population Distribution: Split Urban and Rural

C. Demographics: 40% Asian, 28% Hispanic, 25% White

D. Cook PVI: D+4 (Leans Democratic)

E. Outlook: The battleground California 27th District is located in northern Los Angeles County and includes the cities of Santa Clarita, Lancaster and Palmdale. Incumbent Republican Mike Garcia has plenty of experience in close races against his current opposition, Democratic nominee Christy Smith. The two have gone head-to-head two times since a special election in March of 2020 and now Democrat Smith is hoping that the third time will be the charm. In the special election, she lost by nearly 10 points in a result which many saw an upset victory for the Republicans. In the general election just eight months later however, Rep. Garcia won by only 333 votes. Now Rep. Garcia’s seat became bluer due to redistricting and the combined results of both parties candidates in the open-party primary finished essentially in a dead heat. For months, polling favored incumbent Rep. Garcia, then Ms. Smith took over the polling lead for a while, before giving it back up to Rep. Garcia. This race is truly a tossup and it may come down to has more money in the bank. Rep. Garcia has a fundraising advantage over his Democratic challenger at the moment, but has received no major national endorsements. In a year where the aftermath of the Supreme Court Decision to overturn Roe v. Wade will be a major factor for Democratic voters, this may be Rep. Garcia’s most difficult race yet.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (GAIN)


XXVIII. CA-28:

A. Current Representative: Judy Chu (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 55% White, 24% Hispanic, 13% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+16 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 28th District includes the northern LA County cities of Pasadena and Claremont. Incumbent Rep. Judy Chu has represented the district since 2012 and received 63% of the vote in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XXIX. CA-29:

A. Current Representative: Tony Cárdenas (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 66% Hispanic, 19% White, 8% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+26 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 29th District includes the city of San Fernando and the wider San Fernando Valley. Incumbent Rep. Tony Cárdenas has represented the district since 2012. Two Democratic candidates, including Rep. Cárdenas, finished in the top two spots in the open-party primary, meaning that only Democratic candidates will take part in this election.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XXX. CA-30:

A. Current Representative: Adam Schiff (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 48% White, 29% Hispanic, 13% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+23 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 30th District includes the LA suburbs of Glendale and Burbank, as well as West Hollywood. Current Rep. Adam Schiff, who as Chair of the House Intelligence Committee led the hearings into the first Impeachment of former President Donald Trump, has represented the district since 2012. Two Democrats, including Rep. Schiff, earned the top two spots in the open-party primary, meaning only Democrats will take part in this election.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XXXI. CA-31:

A. Current Representative: Grace Napolitano (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 55% Hispanic, 23% White, 10% African American, 8% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+15 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 31st District includes the cities of San Gabriel Valley to the north of downtown LA. Current Representative Grace Napolitano has represented the district since 2012. Democratic candidates received more than 62% of the votes in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XXXII. CA-32:

A. Current Representative: Brad Sherman (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 61% Hispanic, 20% Asian, 14% White

D. Cook PVI: D+20 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 32nd District includes the wealthy suburbs to the north and west of LA including Malibu. Current Representative Brad Sherman has represented the district since 2012. Democratic candidates received over 70% of the votes in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XXXIII. CA-33:

A. Current Representative: Pete Aguilar (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 62% White, 15% Asian, 13% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: D+12 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 33rd District includes the city of San Bernadino and urban parts of the Inland Empire to the far east of Los Angeles. Current Representative Pete Aguilar has represented the district since 2014 and received 60% of the vote as the lone Democratic nominee in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XXXIV. CA-34:

A. Current Representative: Jimmy Gomez (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 59% Hispanic, 20% Asian, 13% White, 5% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+32 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 34th District includes the immediate downtown area of Los Angeles. Rep. Jimmy Gomez has represented the district since 2016. Both of the winners of the open-party primary were Democrats, including Rep. Gomez, meaning that only Democrats will take part in this election.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XXXV. CA-35:

A. Current Representative: Norma Torres (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 70% Hispanic, 12% White, 9% Asian, 6% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+13 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 35th District includes the eastern cities of the LA metro area including Ontario and Fontana. Rep. Torres has represented the area since 2014. Democratic candidates earned nearly 60% of the votes in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XXXVI. CA-36:

A. Current Representative: Ted Lieu (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 51% Hispanic, 37% White

D. Cook PVI: D+21 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 36th District includes the areas of western LA on the Pacific, including the notable surfing areas of Santa Monica and Venice. Rep. Lieu has represented the district since 2014 and received 67% of the vote in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XXXVII. CA-37:

A. Current Representative: Karen Bass (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 38% Hispanic, 26% White, 20% African American, 10% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+37 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 37th District includes the downtown area of Los Angeles. Incumbent Rep. Karen Bass announced her intention to retire to run for Mayor of Los Angeles, leaving this seat open. Democratic State Senator Sydney Kamlager is the overwhelming favorite to take over the seat. Both winners of the open-party primary were Democrats.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XXXVIII. CA-38:

A. Current Representative: Linda Sánchez (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 63% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 14% White

D. Cook PVI: D+14 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 38th District includes the neighborhoods in South Los Angeles, as well as the city of Whittier. Rep. Sánchez has represented the district since 2012 and received 59% of the vote in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XXXIX. CA-39:

A. Current Representative: Mark Takano (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 34% Hispanic, 33% Asian, 26% White

D. Cook PVI: D+12 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 39th District includes the city of Riverside and the wider Moreno Valley to the east of Los Angeles. Rep. Takano has represented the district since 2012 and received 57% of the vote in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XL. CA-40:

A. Current Representative: Young Kim (R)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 87% Hispanic, 5% African American

D. Cook PVI: R+2 (Toss-up)

E. Outlook: The first of the battleground districts south of Los Angeles, the California 40th is only truly competitive on paper. South Korean-born Rep. Kim, a moderate Republican who has represented the heavily Hispanic district since 2020, was the target of an unsuccessful campaign by Democratic strategists to prop up her far-right Republican challenger in the open-party primary to try to give their candidate, Asif Mahmood, an easier chance of winning in November. Rep. Kim was able to finish in second in the open-party primary by more than 10% and polling has given her a significant advantage in a district in which she enjoys much popularity. Mr. Mahmood was only able to muster 41% of the vote as the only Democratic candidate in the open-party primary. With the possibility of some losses in other parts of the Golden State, the Republicans look poised to hold on to this vital seat.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


XLI. CA-41:

A. Current Representative: Ken Calvert (R)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Urban, Some Rural

C. Demographics: 62% Hispanic, 20% White, 8% African American, 6% Asian

D. Cook PVI: R+3 (Toss-up)

E. Outlook: The California 41st District is a sprawling district in Riverside County to the east of the LA metro area, which includes some large suburban areas as well as sparsely populated desert regions. Incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert has represented the district since 2012 and won the open-party primary with 48% of the vote. Republicans gathered around 53% of the total vote in the district. His challenger in the election is former federal prosecutor Will Rollins who has received key endorsements from some national liberal groups including the Sierra Club. While the 41st did become more competitive due to redistricting, polling has shown a consistent lead for Rep. Calvert, with the only favorable poll for Mr. Rollins being a poll that his own campaign financed, and even then he only had a 1% lead in the district. An R+3 district would be attainable to flip for Democrats in a year like 2022, but unfortunately for them the voting base in CA-41 does not seem to be strong enough. Much like the 40th District, this will be another key hold for Republicans.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


XLII. CA-42:

A. Current Representative: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) and Alan Lowenthal (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 40% Hispanic, 39% White, 11% Asian, 6% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+22 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 42nd District is centered on the cities of Long Beach and Huntington Beach in the western LA metro area, as well as the outlying Channel Islands. Due to population changes, California lost two seats in the House, and the two incumbents were from two seats that were combined into the new 42nd district. Both members of the House are retiring meaning the election will be open. The favorite to win is the Democratic Mayor of Long Beach, Robert Garcia. Democrats earned around 70% of the vote in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XLIII. CA-43:

A. Current Representative: Maxine Waters (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 48% Hispanic, 20% African American, 14% White, 13% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+32 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 43rd District is centered on the LA suburbs of Inglewood and Compton. Rep. Waters has represented the district since 1990 and received 74% of the vote in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XLIV. CA-44:

A. Current Representative: Nanette Barragán (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 71% Hispanic, 15% African American, 6% White, 6% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+24 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 44th District includes the Port of Los Angeles as well as the city of Carson in the southern part of the LA metro area. Rep. Barragán has represented the district since 2016 and received 69% of the vote in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XLV. CA-45:

A. Current Representative: Michelle Steel (R)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 45% White, 28% Asian, 20% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: D+2 (Toss-up)

E. Outlook: The California 45th District is located in the traditionally Republican stronghold of Orange County around the city of Anaheim. Rep. Steel has represented the district since 2020. In that election she won the seat with 51% of the vote. Her district has become bluer due to redistricting and President Biden won the district by 6 points in 2020, which was a major shift from the 2016 presidential election. However, Republican candidates won 57% of the vote in the open-party primary and Democratic challenger Jay Chen, received only 43% of the vote despite being the only Democratic candidate to take part in the primary. Polling has narrowed over the past weeks, but still shows Rep. Steel with a 3% cushion over Mr. Chen. Although California is trending bluer each year, this still seems like a seat in which the Republican candidate can rely on enough traditional support to bring them over the finish line first.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


XLVI. CA-46:

A. Current Representative: Lou Correa (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 66% Hispanic, 16% White, 14% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+15 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 46th District is centered in downtown Anaheim. Rep. Correa has represented the district since 2016. Democratic candidates received more than 60% of the vote in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


XLVII. CA-47:

A. Current Representative: Katie Porter (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 36% Hispanic, 28% White, 23% Asian, 7% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+3 (Toss-up)

E. Outlook: The California 47th District is centered on the coastline of Orange County and includes the cities of Irvine and Huntington Beach. Rep. Porter has represented the district since 2018. The district, like others in Orange County, have been traditionally strong for Republicans but the California 47th may be the toughest flip for Republicans. Rep. Porter has been a popular Congresswoman and received 52% of the vote as the lone Democratic candidate in the open-party primary. Her opponent, Scott Baugh, is the former chair of the Orange County Republican Party. Polls have shown a growing lead for Rep. Porter, going from a tie in May to now a lead of around 8 points in aggregate polling. With Democratic flips unlikely in other LA swing districts, a hold in the 47th will be imperative for Democrats for the national landscape.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD).


XLVIII. CA-48:

A. Current Representative: Darrell Issa (R)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Rural, some Urban

C. Demographics: 52% White, 22% Hispanic, 20% Asian

D. Cook PVI: R+9 (Leans Republican)

E. Outlook: The California 48th is a large district stretching from the very extreme southeastern suburbs of the LA metro area all the way to the Mexican border through inner San Diego County. Incumbent Rep. Issa has represented the district since 2020. As the lone Republican candidate in the open-party primary, he received 62% of the vote.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Republican Victory (HOLD)


XLIX. CA-49:

A. Current Representative: Mark Levin (D)

B. Population Distribution: Mostly Urban, some Rural

C. Demographics: 57% White, 27% Hispanic, 8% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+3 (Toss-up)

E. Outlook: The California 49th District includes the northern areas of San Diego County, including the city of Oceanside. Incumbent Representative Mark Levin has represented the district since 2018. The district did become a bit more red due to redistricting however there are positive signs for Rep. Levin going into the election. Democratic candidates received around 53% of the vote in the open-party primary and polling has giving Rep. Levin a significant advantage which has grown from a 6% advantage in May to a 12% advantage as of publication. He has also received key endorsements from national liberal advocacy groups as well as the San Diego Union-Tribune. His opponent in this race was also his opponent in 2020, Brian Maryott who has received fundraising advantages from national Republican figures who are trying to aid Mr. Maryott in flipping the district red. Unfortunately for the Republicans, the base of support still seems to be favoring Rep. Levin and the Democrats.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


L. CA-50:

A. Current Representative: Scott Peters (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 52% White, 33% Hispanic, 6% Asian

D. Cook PVI: D+14 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 50th District is centered on downtown San Diego. Rep. Peters has represented the district since 2012. Democratic candidates received around 64% of the vote in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


LI. CA-51:

A. Current Representative: Sara Jacobs (D)

B. Population Distribution: Suburban

C. Demographics: 71% Hispanic, 12% White, 8% Asian, 6% African American

D. Cook PVI: D+12 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: The California 51st District is centered on the eastern San Diego suburbs including the city of El Cajon. The heavily Hispanic district has been represented by Rep. Jacobs since 2020. She received 61% of the votes in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


LII. CA-52:

A. Current Representative: Juan Vargas (D)

B. Population Distribution: Urban

C. Demographics: 54% White, 21% Asian, 15% Hispanic

D. Cook PVI: D+18 (Strong Democratic)

E. Outlook: California’s final House district is centered on the extreme southwestern corner of the state in the city of San Diego and bordering both Mexico and the Pacific Ocean. Rep. Vargas has represented the district since 2012. Democratic candidates received 70% of the vote in the open-party primary.

F. Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)



Senate

As with every other state, California has two seats in the Senate, with one of these seats being up for election in 2022. Incumbent Senator Alex Padilla, who was appointed by California Governor Gavin Newsom in 2021 to fill the vacant Senate seat created by Kamala Harris’ election to the vice presidency, will be seeking reelection. For the first time since 2016, a Republican candidate finished in the top two in the open-party primary, meaning that there will be Republican competition in this election. However the Republican candidate Mark Meuser will not be taking over the Senate seat from Sen. Padilla, who enjoys a polling lead of over 30% in this deep blue Senate seat.

Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


Governor

The third and final race in California is for Governor of the state. Incumbent Governor Gavin Newsome, who easily survived a recall challenge in 2021, is aiming for a second term as Governor of the Golden State. His Republican opposition will be former Minority Leader of the California State Assembly Brian Dahle. Much like the Senate seat, the California Governor race is deep blue, with Gov. Newsom enjoying a polling advantage of over 25%.

Millennial Agora Prediction: Democratic Victory (HOLD)


Analysis

The Millennial Agora is predicting that the House races in California will lead to some changes. According to our analysis the Republicans will flip two seats, but the Democrats will be able to flip four seats, meaning that Democrats will gain two seats in the House with the results in California. If this turns out to be the case, it would be a massive boost to the Democrats who are looking for any way to hold on to the House. For the Republicans however, any potential losses in California would not be catastrophic, as they only need a net gain of six seats nationwide to flip the House in their favor.


Thank you for reading our preview of the midterm elections in California. Check back tomorrow as we look at the races in Colorado, a state which was once red, but has now become a very blue shade of purple.



The state of the House after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com

The state of the Senate after our predictions. Made at 270towin.com (States in light grey have no Senate seats up for election this year)

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